NL100: My flopped trips get shoved against on the river

[AsydRayne]

Villain is a semi-donkish 29 6 3 over about 100 hands. Easy call?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($146.50)
Button ($93)
SB ($99)
BB ($224)
UTG ($95.50)
Hero ($201.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $12</font>, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($33.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

River: ($73.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $57 (All-In)</font>, Hero ??

[shpanko]

I'd probably juist CRAI on the turn. Once you get to the river it's tough to see what you beat except J9/J8/J7. Maybe an overplayed KQ or strangely played AA.

But yeah I feel like if we're going to be ok getting it AI we should crai on the turn when he might still be continuing some sort of bluff/semi-bluff or have a weaker J, on the river when he shoves we are beat a lot so I'd rather crai on the turn. Does that make any sense?

As played Folding might be correct but I'd still never do it. I'd be AI on the turn though as I mentioned above

[Grim Reapa]

As played fold the river, cant see villain having anything but AJ KJ QJ JT TT KK or AA here and you only beat the AA.

[AsydRayne]

I understand this reasoning but i don't agree with it. I think a CRAI on the turn turns my hand into a bluff. I'm only getting called by a J or a straight, and the J will almost always be better. The only draw is a Q and I have one as well, so I don't need to charge him to draw. If I'm going to continue after checking the turn, I think a call is best. I didn't put him on a jack, because i usually see this kind of player call the flop with trips, but my slow playing did make it kind of hard to fold the river, because I haven't represented my hand at all.

[shpanko]

Fair enough, but if you're going to c/c the turn don't you think you should lead the river? A lot of weaker hands will check behind whereas they might call a bet and I dont think we're folding this hand so we might as well have the money go in when we bet it as opposed to c/c where we'll certainly be behind.

[AsydRayne]

[ QUOTE ]

As played fold the river, cant see villain having anything but AJ KJ QJ JT TT KK or AA here and you only beat the AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is really his range, then I have almost exactly the odds I need to call.

Board: Jd Th Jc Ks 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.000% 24.00% 06.00% 6 1.50 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 70.000% 64.00% 06.00% 16 1.50 { KK+, TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

his bet is laying me 30.1% so it is just barely too much if his range is really that tight. I think his range has to include KT and possibly QT and QQ. just adding one of those gives me odds to call.

[Im_a_retard]

People play like retards. You said yourself he is a donk. If he has us beat it's a cooler. Laugh when he "traps" you with his AA.

[AsydRayne]

Not sure about leading the river. He's never folding a better hand, so the question is...will he call with a worse hand? If he has J9 or AA he may check behind and I miss value, but I think he may even shove those hands to my check. I think the possible missed value from him checking these hands is worth the possibility of allowing him to bluff a worse hand that he would fold to a river bet.

[Im_a_retard]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure about leading the river. He's never folding a better hand, so the question is...will he call with a worse hand? If he has J9 or AA he may check behind and I miss value, but I think he may even shove those hands to my check. I think the possible missed value from him checking these hands is worth the possibility of allowing him to bluff a worse hand that he would fold to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please stop over-thinking vs a spastic. I'm guessing you lost here fwiw.

[AsydRayne]

Acutally, I won. Took a long think on the river to figure that I was quite possibly ahead and had enough equity vs. his range to make the call.
Villain had QTs