#1
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Am I pot commited or not?
I ran into a very strange situation Saturday.
Live, blinds at $600/$300/$75, 8 handed, avg stack is around 8,500 I lost the last hand and only have $900 after posting the SB and ante. folded to button who pushes. Button who is also fairly short with say 4,000 is covered by BB who has maybe 8,000. Button and BB have some understanding of pushing wide ranges but are almost certainly tighter than the pushbot charts. I'm sure each are aware of my criticle stack as well. I look at my cards, more for BBs benefit, expecting to push and see 72o. Push or Fold? |
#2
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Re: Am I pot commited or not?
You're most likely behind in this situation. Even if Button is pushing any two cards, there is a high probability that he has something higher than 72o. I may fold this and then hope to get a better hand on the Button, or a better hand before the blinds hit me again.
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#3
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Re: Am I pot commited or not?
I did the math and I'm getting 3:1 pot odds if BB folds while I have about 30% equity of 3,600 against a 30% villain range.
My EV is about 1080 if BB folds but much worse if BB gets involved. If I wait for button and push dark, I will almost certainly get called by both blinds in a cooperation play so 33% chance of winning 3,075 My EV is 1014.75 but much better if SB folds. It's a very close call but if you throw in the chances of BB calling now or SB folding later it shifts the EV in favor of folding. So even getting 3:1 odds a fold is better which I find odd. |
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