LIVE top set facing flop cap versus nit

[obi_wang]

Live $3/6 extremely loose passive table. A real perfect table, really, the reason i prefer playing live cuz its around 6-9 players to the flop every hand. Villain is one of the more conservative players, not as loose, but really passive postflop, especially versus me (she played hands against me like i had to have the nuts all the time).

anyways, i'm in late position and raise with Jacks. 7 players to the flop.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain bets from early position, a couple callers in between, i raise, a couple callers behind, Villain 3-bets, in between players call, i cap, and i think 5 players see the turn.

Turn: blank.

Villain bets, one caller, I raise, one player behind calls two cold, villain 3-bets, one player in b/w calls, I ?

At this point, i'm 95% sure she's got Q10 and 5% she's got a set of 9s, given how she's played against me in other hands. At this point, with two other callers getting dragged into this monster pot, do i have equity to cap this turn, even if i know i'm probably beat (and pray for the board to pair)?

[mrcunningham]

Well on the river you have one J, and three blank, 8, or 9's to a full house. So 10 outs to a full house. There are 46 cards out, so no I don't think that you get value with a cap.

[anotherFliplost]

Your best case scenario gives 25% equity (if your QT read is correct). That assumes no sharing of cards, but I could see the callers having hands like T9 or 98, which brings your equity down. If you are sure that she has the nuts (or concerned that one of the callers has T7), just call the 3-bet. I'd usually cap here without much concern, though, absent the specific read.

[StrictlyStrategy]

I wouldn't cap.

"Villain is really passive postflop."

Passive players don't bet in to the raiser+ whole field + 3bet the flop + call the cap + Lead the turn + 3bet the turn.


Now you have to realize there are like 3 other people in this hand besides QT and your JJ, there are going to be heart draws for sure, and I'm sure someone has a Ten, but I'd have to think at least someone has a pair.

Just call turn and bet/raise if you fill.

[Aces McGee]

There are a great number of live $3/$6 players against whom even raising this turn is wrong.

Don't cap.

-McGee

[Grease]

Call and hope the board pairs. She probably has QT, but you have played it well so far. Call her river bet UI.

[reutel]

Call/call river UI.

Folding the river UI is a HUGE mistake, I hope you realize.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a great number of live $3/$6 players against whom even raising this turn is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

While you figure to have only slightly negative equity vs. 3 opponents, one of whom is holding a straight, the number of people coming along for the ride suggests that some of your 10 outs are dead. I would have just called the turn lead bet, planning to raise the river if the board pairs or probably make one more call in this huge pot unimproved.

[Lunatunez]

Grunch: (my 1st grunch!)

I would say cap the turn, call the river UI. You have 4 players in on the turn (if I read this correctly), you have close to 10 outs, equity looks good, your hand looks good, ship it.

edit: hehe, ok I read the other posts and I agree, a call looks better on second thought.

[Lucky_River]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are a great number of live $3/$6 players against whom even raising this turn is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

While you figure to have only slightly negative equity vs. 3 opponents, one of whom is holding a straight, the number of people coming along for the ride suggests that some of your 10 outs are dead. I would have just called the turn lead bet, planning to raise the river if the board pairs or probably make one more call in this huge pot unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong!!
raise turn is the right play. they could also have one or two pair the player behind could still be on a draw. If someone allready has his street you have 10 outs and if all 3 call your ep is close to 0. The pott is allready big so you should try to win the pott not to save money.