pot odds be damned, i'm folding TPTK

[derosnec]

no reads

given my turn bet, he has to give me some credit here



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($25)
BB ($37.10)
UTG ($17.55)
MP ($49.85)
Hero ($32.20)
Button ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, Button calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($3.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.2</font>, Button calls $2.20.

Turn: ($7.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, Button calls $4.

River: ($15.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $6</font>, Hero folds.

[Gullanian]

"given my turn bet, he has to give me some credit here"

I really wouldn't assume things about micro stakes players. You can lose money with assumptions like that. Imagine them all as complete idiots until you start learning something about them.

River call is 50/50 imo. I don't think anyone can fault you for calling or folding but I would probably call.

[Dunkman]

Yeah you're not good often here...3.5:1 is intoxicating though. I imagine it's a good fold, although I doubt you're losing too terribly much calling.

[creamfillin]

lol rofl wtf bbq @ you folding this river

[Gullanian]

He did play it exactly like a flush draw though.

[derosnec]

There are 16 combos of KQ/KJ and 6 combos of AK that he could have.

I expect him to raise flop or turn with those a certain % of time, especially on drawy board. So let's weight it so that he has 15 combos of those hands to account for him raising a certain % of the time. But I expect him to check those hands behind on the river a certain % of the time given the board. So let's reduce the combos further to = 10 hands.

Rest of the possible hands:

6 pocket fours
6 pocket nines
6 pocket tens
11 Ax hearts
1 QJ hearts
1 QT hearts
1 JT hearts
1 T9 hearts
1 98 hearts
1 87 hearts
2 KT suited
5 KTo

I'll discount TT/99/44 and KT by 75% since I expect to raise somewhere (although I have seen people slowplay those hands on drawy board because they put pfr on AK or AA, rather than a drawy hand). So that results in about 8 combos of those hands.

So, I'm behind 25 combos and ahead of about 7 and tied with 3. I could account some % for bluffing but I can't think of a hand he bluffs.

So, this is actually close, but I have it as +EV to call.

[karlwig]

why couldn't he have AQ/AJ? he called both bets, and when you checked he bet it for value? i think thats possible.

also, when you checked you may have encouraged him to bluff at you. those things, and the great pot odds you get, would make me call. i'd expect to loose more times than i win, but money-wise its still +EV as the call is cheap.

[BozMan82]

How about a bigger bet on the turn? Maybe villain would lay down his possible FD more often. If he still calls, he makes an even bigger mistake.

Or do we want to bet just over 1/2 the pot and tempt him to call with pot odds still not high enough to chase a flush?

[0evg0]

lol at making big folds at 100nl or lower

[RUDIKS]

[ QUOTE ]
River call is 50/50 imo. I don't think anyone can fault you for calling or folding but I would probably call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably gonna be shown a flush here, but many 25nl players will bet there with KQ, KJ enough to make it a decent call.