Week of 5/13 MLB YTD: 31-32-5 -6.65u

[Spence]

Still learning lots, but feel im getting better at handicapping. I know this isn't the path most choose to take to become a successful bettor, but I want to exhaust all my options before I become a line shopper primarily.

anyway just one pick tonight, busy day with mother's day etc.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Over 9 (-110) 1.1u

[Spence]

Yesterday: 1-0-0 +1u
WTD: 1-0-0 +1u
YTD: 32-32-5 -5.65u

[Spence]

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Over 9.5 (-105) 1.05u
Chicago-N Cubs at New York-N Mets Under 8 (-110) 1.10u
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Under 7.5 (-115) 1.15u
Atlanta Braves (-200) at Washington Nationals 2u
Milwaukee Brewers at Phila. Phillies (-120) 1.20u
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (-170) 1.70u

[Spence]

ouch ouch ouch.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Over 9.5 (-105) -1.05u
Chicago-N Cubs at New York-N Mets Under 8 (-110) -1.10u
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Under 7.5 (-115) -1.15u
Atlanta Braves (-200) at Washington Nationals -2u
Milwaukee Brewers at Phila. Phillies (-120) +1u
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (-170) -1.70u

Yesterday: 1-5-0 -6u
WTD 2-5-0 -5u
YTD: 33-37-5 -11.55u

[whipsaw]

you were one turnbow away from a donut

[Spence]

I thought for sure I had it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

It's so tough to keep on picking, because I feel that I should be doing well. I really don't know how to tell if I made bad picks, I mean honestly, how many times does Bergmann pitch a shut out, and then the Red's just had to score in the 9th. I really think it's variance to a certain degree, I'm going to do something crazy. I know it's wrong, but I'm going to try to pick every single game for a week or two. If I have a low scoring game that I think will be even I'm going to pick the underdog +1.5, otherwise I'm just going to go for the winner (duh).

[whipsaw]

Just pay attention to price versus odds of winning.

[Spence]

I am doing that, what I meant by winners is who i expect to beat the odds. Should have made that clearer. Your advice has been very helpful to my overall success. And by success, im not being tongue-in-cheek, i actually am improving quite a bit as a picker even if my stats aren't what I'd hope for.

[Spence]

Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (Over 9 - Even) 1u
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (Under 7.5 - Even) 1u
LA-A Angels at Seattle Mariners (Under 7.5 - -125) 1.25u
Atlanta Braves (-225) at Washington Nationals 2.25u
Milwaukee Brewers at Phila. Phillies (+112) 1u
Florida Marlins (+104) at Pittsburgh Pirates 1.04u
Minnesota Twins (+140) at Cleveland Indians 1u
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (+106) 1u
Chicago-N Cubs (+135) at New York-N Mets 1u
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-144) 1.44u
San Fran. Giants (+107) at Houston Astros 1u
New York-A Yankees (-160) at Chicago-A White Sox 1.60u
Arizona Diamondbacks (-107) at Colorado Rockies 1.07u
LA-A Angels at Seattle Mariners (-121) 1.21u
St. Louis Cardinals at LA-N Dodgers (-151) 1.51u

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I am doing that, what I meant by winners is who i expect to beat the odds. Should have made that clearer. Your advice has been very helpful to my overall success. And by success, im not being tongue-in-cheek, i actually am improving quite a bit as a picker even if my stats aren't what I'd hope for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Write down what the odds on each favorite should be before you look at the actual odds. If your odds are within 0.05 of the actual line, score zero, if you're between 0.06 and 0.10 score one, 0.11 and 0.15 score two, 0.16-0.25 score five, 0.26 and above score ten.

Lower your average score, and you're getting better.

Lori