300 NL: J9 on a 8s9s9c flop. ai cr.

[getmetheswan]

Local card room. Fairly typical mix of loose and tight players. Buyin is 300 and stacks range from 100-600. I have 540 and a tight image.

EP raises to 15 (typical), two others call and I call on the button with Jh9h. BB calls and five go to the flop.

Flop comes 8s9s9c and it's checked around to MP with ~120 left. He bets 55 into 75 pot. I have 525 in chips and raise to 200. I am sure I am ahead at this point.

The BB, a reasonable player, check raises all in for 430 total. Only MP calls. Pot is ~825.

I am interested in the following:

1. Call or fold?
2. Is the decision marginal or a no-brainer?
3. If you know you're behind the BB does it change the situation?
4. If you can "do business" and run the turn and river three times (the winner of each run getting a third of the pot), how does this affect the decision?
5. Views on raising the flop to 200 given stack sizes.

Thanks!

[getmetheswan]

OK, some math to see if I can generate some responses.

From Poker Stove:

If we put BB on a range of A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9, suited or unsuited, JsTs, and 97d, and we put MP on AsQs-AsTs, As7s, As6s. This gives us 33% equity, to win or tie, for the main pot. If we remove MP, we have about 41% equity for the side pot if we call.

I am assuming that if EP had a full house he would have smooth called here, but even including 89 and 88 doesnt change these percentages too much.

So we are 33% for the main pot of 435, and 41% for a side pot of 620 if we call. This indicates an EV of ~330 for the call if I am doing the math right (factoring in split pots).

In reality, there aren't too many players in this game who will cr all in for 430, into a pot they've only invested 15 in, without a nine here. Reducing the range further can reduce the EV to about 260. So this seems like a definite call, though one that likely results in higher variance.

Views?

I don't think this player calls with anything below 97s preflop.

[LearnedfromTV]

This is definitely a weird spot because it's pretty much impossible for him to be bluffing, or even to have worse than a 9, unless he has a monster draw.

But you have some outs against everything (like you implied 98/88 aren't any different from A9), it's possible you're ahead, and the odds you're getting are way too good.

I don't understand why MP has to have spades; isn't TT/A8/etc just as likely. Regardless of the action he's not folding anything - he bet half his stack (So the fact that he called doesn't mean he has a draw rather than a hopeless made hand)

Doing business shouldn't affect the decision; running it multiple times is neutral ev.

[catcher193]

[ QUOTE ]
Doing business shouldn't affect the decision; running it multiple times is neutral ev.

[/ QUOTE ]
Disagree, if there is a fish with a deepstack/you can rebuy, then run it once.

[getmetheswan]

TV, agree with EP having the 9 and MP being committed. When I raised I knew MP was calling and I was happy to race against him if he was on the draw.

If we agree that the range above for EP is reasonable - A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9/97, suited/unsuited - I think we have a marginal call. We beat 25% of these hands and tie a few. I am not well versed in the EV calcs, but if we open up MPs range and allow for the fact that EP could have made a loose call pf with 9d6d, a call becomes even clearer.

What makes the hand more interesting is how sensitive the decision is to the pot bet. My above EV calc of 330 is actually incorrect - I was including the 230 I call with in the numbers. If you look at the pot before my call, the EV is 250-265. So if I had raised to 175 on the flop rather than 200, this then becomes a fold... EV drops to ~245 and it's 255 to call. Close.

Anyway, in the hand I did call and EP turned over Q9o, MP As7s. We ran it three times and EP won all three.

This is one of the first hands I've come across that I've really been forced to research so I appreciate the input.

[soah]

You're getting like 4:1, right? this is an autocall, doesn't even matter what they have, you have outs or chop outs vs everything. the only way calling might be wrong is if one has 88 and the other has a nine because then you're drawing thin for half the pot, but that's pretty rare (and even then it would be close, since you do have some equity)