Explain this PPT Bellagio hand percentage calculation

[gmcarroll33]

This might not be the right forum, but when it got down to 10 people Eli Elezra limped in with AA. Other guy's name I can't remember had Q9 hearts, Lindgren limped in with 22 as did Chip Reese with 10-6 clubs.

Flop came 3-7-Q. Eli checked, other guy with Q-9 bet, Lindgren and Reese fold, Eli calls. Goes all-in in the dark before the turn is even exposed. Turn is a 9 giving other guy two pair. Here is where I get confused.

They calculate Eli's chance to win as 23%. I don't understand where they came up with that number. Isn't the 6 remaining 3's and 7's plus the 2 remaining Aces his only outs? There was no flush possibility I'm almost 100% certain. So with 8 outs with 1 card to come shouldn't it be 16%? Am I wrong, or can somebody explain what the heck 23% is all about?

[vincevegas]

They use the cards that have been exposed to them in the hand like the 22 and t6 are not in the deck

[Poker Face]

The other guy was Chris Bjorin, but he had Q-9 of spades (not hearts). Anyway, you're right that there was no flush draw, but you left out that B.Shulman folded J-8 and Doyle folded 10-5 pre-flop and that it was a 6-handed table. I'll tell you why it matters.

Obviously, for a quick calculation (after Turn) you can multiply the # of outs by 2 and sometimes add 1% or 2% to sometimes be more accurate, so that quickly, we would say Eli has between a 16%-18% chance of winning, with one card to come. (8 outs times 2 =16%)

However, after checking another PPT hand, it does appear that the PPT counts the number of cards already dealt, before doing it's calculations. Yes, Eli still has only 8 outs because no other Aces, 7's or 3's were dealt, but the fewer the cards that are left in the deck, the greater his win percentage will be.

I also noticed that it showed Eli had a 23% chance to win and Chris Bjorin had a 76% chance. That leaves a 1% chance for a tie, which is incorrect! They often make mistakes on tv shows, this is just one of them.

If you use Cardplayer's odds calculator Cardplayer Texas Hold'Em Odds Calculator for this hand (it doesn't take into account the other previously dealt player's cards), it shows Eli having an 18.18% chance to win and Bjorin with 81.82%, with NO chance for a TIE.

So, after counting all the cards dealt (up to and including the turn) I counted 16 cards. 52-16=36 cards left in the deck. 8 outs/36 cards= 22.22% chance for Eli to win. PPT was close, but there was no tie possible.

Mystery solved. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]