bottom set deep on draw heavy board - im lost

[ob1]

I just remembered this hand from last year, one of the hardest decisions ive had to make at a poker table.

game is 3-5-10 at northern california cardroom, cant remember the name. Any way, uncapped buy in, I come in for 2500 now have about 4000 on the table, villan covers.
He is really the only good player at the table and we have for some reason been getting into a lot of pots together, him taking the best of it mostly because he is directly to my left. He has been 3-betting pretty light to my late position raises ~1/3 of the time. I have not seen him make any huge laydowns in big pots and he tends to let the pot get a little too big this deep due to him overvaluing hands.

anyway, heres the hand
folds to me, I raise to 40 with 99. villan 3 bets to 200, blinds fold, i call.
flop comes a[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
i lead for 300 and villan raises min to 600. I make it 1600 and villan tanks for about 5 mins, someone calls the clock on him and he moves all in within 10 seconds. I was completely lost on what to do, i am slightly ahead of j [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , way ahead of aq and [censored] if he has aa or qq, i thought perhaps he may have k [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10/j [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] also. thoughts? fwiw, villan knows that I have a hand here, as i have not messed with him too much oop like i said before. what do i do?

[Equal]

So $5600 in the pot, and you have $2200 left. You only need 28% equity. The question you have to ask yourself is - can he have AQ?

Because if AQ is in his range here, that's the hand where you get all your equity from. You are ~58% versus the combo draws, and obviously crushed versus sets.

AQ looks like it's very likely in his range - so call.

I'm sorry for you getting set-over-setted. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ob1]

i may have had about 4500 b/c i remember looking down and saying (LOL) im still ahead on the day and this is thin so maybe i should fold......... so yea i had like 2600 left give or take when he moved in

[Equal]

Well obviously figuring outs the correct pot odds you are getting is important, but in this case there's so much money already in the pot that it's basically impossible for you to fold.

Dont forget he could also have AKss or something similar.

[ob1]

i think he knows that at worst i have aq, so akss is either slightly behind or way behind, so i was not sure if he would move in with that, basically, he knows i would have 4 bet AA and probly QQ, so this deep, he has to know i have 99 or aq, maybeeeee, a9, but probly only the first 2, so if he has akss, he has to be a total sicko with an impeccable read that i am capable of folding a big hand here. basically would you give a better than average player, but not a great one, the ability to make such a sick move this deep?

[Equal]

Well a good player probably doesnt 3-bet preflop with KJss, JTss, KTss type hands.

[The Dingo]

My guess is he has 10sJs

or higher set ??

would he do this with KK, doubt it

I am retarded he cant have KK sorry, I would have called the all in with a set of 9s. I think I have laid down a set on a flop only twice and that was when I was practically told that the other guys had higher sets..

[ob1]

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is he has 10sJs
or higher set ??would he do this with KK, doubt it

[/ QUOTE ]

obv never

[Praetor]

i cant think of a good reason for leading here

[ob1]

[ QUOTE ]
i cant think of a good reason for leading here

[/ QUOTE ]
what check raise?? then what when he bets 400, i make it 1400 and he shoves, his hand is so much less defined then, i think leading is the only way to play this hand, i think in fact that checking is terrible