TOP #12 - Defense Against the Semi-Bluff

[wallenborn]

The Power of the Semi-Bluff

There aren't many defenses against the semi-bluff, which is why it is such a powerful play. Frequently the best play against a possible semi-bluff is to fold, especially whan the pot is small. If you call his bet, he has three ways of beating you. He may have in fact have the best hand when he bet. He may have been semi-bluffin, but he now outdraws you. Or he may have been semi-bluffing but he proceeds to catch scare cards that force you to fold.

The Semi-Bluff Raise as a Defense Against the Semi-Bluff

When you suspect an opponent may be semi-bluffing, and you have a hand that is worth a call, in most cases you should raise. This is just one of many situations in poker where, when folding is not the best play, raising is, and calling is the worst of the three alternatives.

When to Fold and When to Raise

When you have a poor hand, you fold. When you have a big hand, you raise. When you have a medium-value hand, your decision depends on three criteria:
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The chances your opponent is bluffing or semi-bluffing.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The chances your opponent will outdraw you if he is betting with the worst hand.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] The chances you will outdraw your opponent if he is betting the best hand.

Exceptions When Calling is Correct

Either folding or raising is the correct play against the semi-bluff most of the time. There are three exceptions:
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] When the pot is large.
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] You can call and bet out if the next street is a blank.
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] To setup a delayed semi-bluff raise.




Older threads:

TOP #1 - Beyond Beginning Poker
TOP #2 - Mathematical Expectation and Hourly Rate
TOP #3 - The Fundamental Theorem of Poker
TOP #4 - The Ante Structure
TOP #5 - Pot Odds
TOP #6 - Effective Odds
TOP #7 - Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds
TOP #8 - The Value of Deception
TOP #9 - Win the Big Pots Right Away
TOP #10 - The Free Card
TOP #11 - The Semi-Bluff

[CPHoya]

Gonna make this quick, but semi-bluffing in NL is a much more fragile maneuver, and the returns are smaller.

The sorts of small bets Sklansky is talking about in ToP do not apply very well to NLHE. So a "semi-bluff" is much more like a bluff to take down the pot, with the added possibility that you'll hit your hand. Good players will raise your semi-bluff, and there goes this "powerful" play which is "hard to defend." More importantly, every time you miss it's expensive. It's not one bb at a NL table - it might be many, many more. So your loss is larger in each failed attempt, and your gain comparably smaller.

If you do connect and stack someone, great. The implied odds are large. But it's much, much harder to induce enough folds to make this a long-term winning play.

It's a tool, but not the fearsome weapon ToP would lead you to believe it is (and which it is in limit).