160 BB's deep bottom set 50NL, time to fold????

the machine · #1 05-09-2007, 02:02 PM

ok so berate the limp all you want but sb has been 3 betting light and BB is very loose so i have no FE here and dont mind the button open limp in this situation.

SB is 32/23/3 over 550 and fold to cbet is 41
BB is 40/10/5 over 150 but dont have fold to cbet.

needless to say to i dont have much FE here

so now that were past that WTF turn.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $84.00
BB: $64.55
UTG: $21.85
CO: $53.35
Hero (BTN): $98.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, SB raises to $2, BB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB bets $4.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $13.50

Turn: ($42) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $34, SB raises all-in to $64, Hero calls $30

the machine · #2 05-09-2007, 02:15 PM

well i think this sounds kinda silly. i obv cant fold after i bet the turn because the pot is huge so maybe i should ask should i bet the turn???

if there is no hearts do you bet the turn????

XHitman014 · #3 05-09-2007, 02:15 PM

Could you really fold there getting 4 to 1? You're pot committed...also with those PT #s, we could be looking at a combo draw, possibly even naked FD. I'm guessing you ran into a higher set, possibly even JJ but gotta felt it.

Dunkman · #4 05-09-2007, 02:16 PM

Silly to criticize the limp...you want a raise to go in PF, so if limping accomplishes that then it's a good play.

I don't see how you can fold here with QQ-AA and JT being very realistic hands for villain (or even a heart draw, with Jh or like KhQh or something.) Sure, there's also quite a few hands he could have that beat you, and I don't have stove in front of me, but I seriously doubt you're behind his range. I'm certain that you're at least good enough v. his range to call the turn. I think you played the hand quite well, although I think the turn bet size may have been a bit excessive, it worked out fine.

the machine · #5 05-09-2007, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Could you really fold there getting 4 to 1? You're pot committed...also with those PT #s, we could be looking at a combo draw, possibly even naked FD. I'm guessing you ran into a higher set, possibly even JJ but gotta felt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

does a combo draw check raise the turn AI. i dont think so. it gets no fold equity. hard to put him on a draw like that

lorenzo4ever · #6 05-09-2007, 02:21 PM

hello,

I will try to analyse your hand and as I am not an expert, do not hesitate to correct me.

Your opponent (SB) is a tight player. He raised pre-flop which indicates strenght. (AA --> 10/10, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ ?).
You got trips on the flop, he bet, you reraised, he called. He may have AK/AQ/AJ of heart or TPTK (A10).

As he didn't reraise on flop, I think he was trapping you or waiting for a draw.

But you got 30$ to try to win 66$, 2-1 pot odds, as the hands that would hurt you are 77, TT, JJ, I would call everytime. And if he were on a flush draw, he would have been 4-to-1 underdog, so the call is worth.

Dunkman · #7 05-09-2007, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
well i think this sounds kinda silly. i obv cant fold after i bet the turn because the pot is huge so maybe i should ask should i bet the turn???

if there is no hearts do you bet the turn????

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see any possible reason to not bet this turn.

edit: I also don't think 32/23 is very tight, and from the SB in an unraised pot he could easily be raising 30%+ of his hands.

XHitman014 · #8 05-09-2007, 02:22 PM

Does the pot sized reraise on the flop, price OP in considering the villian's stack size? Virtually any bet on the turn locks him in.

the machine · #9 05-09-2007, 02:25 PM

youre a little off lorenzo. i have to call 30 into 128

34 on flop + my 30 on turn + his 64 shove

Debaser · #10 05-09-2007, 02:32 PM

The action on the flop pretty much tied you to your hand even if the turn was J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Against a LAG I'm more than happy to get it all in here and it'd have to be a lot deeper before I'd even consider letting it go. Only 4 hands beat you. TT and 77 might well push the drawy flop. Would he raise pf with 98 even with those stats? JJ makes sense for his play on all streets but that'd just be a cooler. His turn c/r with very little fe is v scary though...