AK where I 4bet pf and realize I'm pot committed -- 50NL

[Kasane]

My villain is a reasonable TAG player who will 3bet AK-AQs pf and maybe a little more than usual when he thinks you're fos. I do think he's tight and folding most everything to a 4bet.

I think he thinks I'm an aggrotard. I've been raising a lot and shown down a couple of weird ones. I've been b/folding a fair amount, and c/folding from called c-bets.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $18.40
BB: $50
UTG: $72.30
MP: $67.85
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $50.75</font>
BTN: $88.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22</font>, BTN calls $16

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($44.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ...</font>

Thoughts on the 4bet size welcome -- I thought a push would convince him I have exactly what I have, AK and he'd call with a ton of flips. As long as it was push or fold, and I didn't mind pushing here OOP, I felt I'd be more likely to get a fold at this point from repping AA-KK with "call me" 4-bet size. Might be mistake #1.

Once he calls, I think we can seriously discount KK-AA for villain and put him on JJ-AA (leaning heavily towards the bottom) and AK. We don't need villain to fold very often to make a push correct here, do we? We're getting called pretty often though.

[coordi]

thats the problem with play ak like this. your now playing hand as a bluff and that relies on your read of opp. if you think you can get him to fold, or you feel lucky, push. otherwise shutdown to his dominant overpair.

[Sirasoni]

Why can we discount KK and AA? For what it's worth, if I'm IP and I'm 4bet, I call and shove flop if he bets simply because he is likely to bet out with QQ and AK on dry flops. I rarely 5-bet shove preflop here because it scares out precisely those two hands, QQ and AK ;[ (though QQ less so).

[Kasane]

KK and AA can be discounted seriously. For one, I have AK. Two, by the time I have half my stack in I'm pot committed. You can push here with AA, KK all day long and should. QQ and AK aren't folding -- or shouldn't be. AK still has 33%+ equity or so against KK. And QQ, again, you don't put half your stack in with QQ and fold, not if you're 4 betting the right opponent. From what I know of villain, he's pushing AA, KK here every time.

Sure, there's a chance he has AA, KK -- I just don't think it's likely. AA, KK should both be pushing here.

Calling a 3-bet with AA, KK in position is much more common and I do it to. Not a 4 bet.

[Bantam222]

If you 4bet pre flop you have to push this flop right...? you didn't risk $22 just to win the $6 in there did you?

[Entropy4]

[ QUOTE ]
KK and AA can be discounted seriously. For one, I have AK. Two, by the time I have half my stack in I'm pot committed. You can push here with AA, KK all day long and should. QQ and AK aren't folding -- or shouldn't be. AK still has 33%+ equity or so against KK. And QQ, again, you don't put half your stack in with QQ and fold, not if you're 4 betting the right opponent. From what I know of villain, he's pushing AA, KK here every time.

Sure, there's a chance he has AA, KK -- I just don't think it's likely. AA, KK should both be pushing here.

Calling a 3-bet with AA, KK in position is much more common and I do it to. Not a 4 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the 4-bet is terrible. All it accomplishes is getting AQ to fold, which you are dominating anyway. Only things that call are QQ-AA, sometimes JJ and rarely another AK. On this flop, you limit yourself to shoving or folding, and if you shove you're praying he has AK too, because you're a huge underdog to anything else.

You can't discount AA and KK because you have an A and K. Sure, it's less likely, but it's still very possible. QQ is more likely, but regardless, you're behind to pretty everything that calls your 4-bet reasonably.

Also, work on your math. With 2 cards to come, AK is not 33% against AA, it's a meager 10% at most. Even against QQ, which is marginally more likely here, you're not even 25% to win.

The four-bet is terrible. You said villain seemed to believe you were playing lagtard, and he would be right. I'd check/fold flop and kick myself.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
The four-bet is terrible. You said villain seemed to believe you were playing lagtard, and he would be right. I'd check/fold flop and kick myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain believes OP is playing lagtard, his range opens up which doesn't make it that horrible. If you're check folding after 4betting here, you're crazy - though I'd imagine you wouldn't be 4betting.

[Kasane]

At least you're arguing right and thinking about it. But I think you're wrong.

Okay -- your first point might be right on. The 4bet might be terrible. That's why I'm posting this. It's usually push or fold, but I included my read on why I did what I did, and I think the call from villain is the last thing I was expecting. Hence the post. My 4-bet is a push with an extra nudge of read -- what I thought my opponent would fold to. Yes, a fold is my best outcome.

Yes, I can discount AA, KK because I have AK. That's the basis of hand ranges. I have an A, and a K -- therefore they can't have AA or KK nearly as often as if I had QQ. Half as often, in fact. That and the preflop action cuts it down further. Yes, it is there - but with sensible application of a read you can cut it down again. My opponent wasn't the tricky type. He's not an AA, KK caller in position generally. Can I absolutely knock 'em out of his range? No, and I'm not. If I had 3bet and he called in position, I wouldn't discount AA, KK much at all.

I wasn't arguing that AK is 33% after the flop. That was pf percentages, and a good part of my argument on why calling a push with AK is nearly mandatory once you've 4bet the flop.

It's down to 25% against JJ, QQ now that I've seen the flop. But against JJ, QQ, AK (if AK is folding) -- this is a clear push for pot odds. If I chk, I'm committed to a call given my estimation of villain's range.

I think. Someone stove this for me with say one combo of AA, KK -- add one of AQs for good measure, all the JJ, and QQ combos and half of the AK combos. That'd be about right I think.

This reply was for Entropy's response.

[Kasane]

Finally broke down and got pokerstove.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

22,770 games 0.005 secs 4,554,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 5d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.484% 13.11% 19.37% 2986 4410.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 67.516% 48.15% 19.37% 10963 4410.50 { AdAh, KdKh, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }

Clear push then, not even given any FE -- and we've got more than a little against AK. Though to be fair, if we discount AA and KK, then we've got to discount AK some too.

Wish I knew how to more easily cut ranges down though. Had to manually input one combo of AA and KK -- is there an easier way?

[KEW]

I think if TAG is "reasonable" you can nearly take AK out of his range..After you 4 bet AK is clearly a push or fold for villain...A TAG will not(or should not) put over 30%($16) of his stack in to call when he will only hit the flop about 33% of the time..Once villain called the 4 bet w/QQ-99 I doubt you have much FE...

BUT OTOH I think you need to push the flop and give villain a chance to make a mistake...