$22 PS - AK vs all-in

[typically]

Villain is fairly solid player with 7% aROI, $16 avr. Hasn't made any big moves so far. Fold here?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1900)
UTG+1 (t1310)
MP1 (t1620)
Hero (t2750)
Button (t2380)
SB (t1530)
BB (t2010)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t200</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t1530 (All-in)</font>

[Kazimyrch]

I'd fold. Your stack is big enough to wait for a better spot.

[mortimo]

t150 preflop
I lean toward a call

[proell]

What's your image like?
I don't think I can fold here for another 1300. Certainly a lot of pairs and a couple of aces are doing this. Not to mention occasional re-steals with trash. And I would love to become the dominant stack here, while not having to risk all my chips. I call.

[typically]

I had been recently aggressive with KK or something and then fired out with this (partly the reason for 4XBB rather than 3X, plus I think it's important to vary open raise sizes). My image is tight-solid otherwise, no reason for him to suspect anything. I think his range is AQ+, TT+, which AK isn't great against. Do I really need to risk my stack here?

[Kazimyrch]

You're only beating weaker aces. You don't have odds against pp.

[proell]

I'm guessing that I am close to a dead 50% against his range, give or take a percentage point.
(obviously also depending on my image, and villian's style)

[typically]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that I am close to a dead 50% against his range, give or take a percentage point.
(obviously also depending on my image, and villian's style)

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, but I think I can afford to let this go rather than risk a coinflip...

[Ocean613]

If we push and lose we still have 1220 and still have plenty of room to play around and if we win we have 4330 which should allow us to bully a fair bit as the bubble gets closer. I am more apt to take these coinflips when I am left with a reasonable stack even if I lose. We obviously aren't ahead of very much but so long as villain does not have AA,KK we will be at worst a coinflip. Does he push with AA, KK here? I would think that he would try to RR to get us commited to force a push on the flop or turn?

Is this thinking wrong?

[proell]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree, but I think I can afford to let this go rather than risk a coinflip...

[/ QUOTE ]


Two reasons why you need to "risk" the coinflip here:

The first is the extra money in the pot (you need to call only ~1300 to win ~1700) so taking an exact 50/50 is very +EV for you.
Then, the fact that if you win you will be in a vastly superior position in this SNG than you are now.

All that, and the worst case is that you end up with only ~20BB if you lose.

edit: (underrepresented your situation if you lost!)