NL200 - AA - Is My Line Goot?

pterodactyl_ · #1 05-07-2007, 02:46 PM

Villain is 18/7 over 350 hands. You like??

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($188.25)
Hero ($282.00)
MP1 ($164.90)
MP2 ($208.00)
CO ($213.10)
Button ($297.75)
SB ($253.20)
BB ($198.74)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, SB calls $8, 1 fold.

Flop: ($20) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15.

Turn: ($50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $35, Hero calls $35.

River: ($120) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $80, Hero raises to $200, SB bets $194.2 (All-In).

BT2 · #2 05-07-2007, 02:50 PM

i think this is awesome.

Albert Moulton · #3 05-07-2007, 03:41 PM

Call the river.

You probably won't win a pretty good amount of time, but you really can't fold, and you certainly shouldn't raise.

You are essentially turning your overpair into a bluff. What hand will call your push that doesn't beat you? AQ? KK? Only if villain is REALLY bad. I think your line is fine until the river.

Albert Moulton · #4 05-07-2007, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think this is awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because AQ and KQ and KK call the push? If you are being serious about this line at the river being awesome, could you explain why?

I thought calling the river would be much better than pushing because there are many hands that beat aces here, and most of the ones that don't beat aces probably won't call the big river raise.

Jurrr · #5 05-07-2007, 03:43 PM

What range do you put the villain on?

pterodactyl_ · #6 05-07-2007, 03:44 PM

I felt like I was taking AQ/KQ to valuetown here. What does he have that beats us? Some random 4? 66/55 that floated flop?

Jurrr · #7 05-07-2007, 04:02 PM

54s * 2, 55/66 that floated, QQ that didn't 3bet, KK/AQ/KQ that you beat; yeah actually I think I like this. NH.

Falc · #8 05-07-2007, 04:07 PM

He probably isn't getting that out of line with KQ, maybe with AQ but I don't think so. I can't see what he has on the river except a 4, QQ or KK. I think you're getting valuetowned most of the time.

bmanning · #9 05-07-2007, 04:08 PM

I almost did a spit take when i saw your line on the river. I hate the river. Villain is 17/7 so is prob not an idiot. No value in a raise here.

Jurrr · #10 05-07-2007, 04:32 PM

I stoved this to give villain a reasonable range, it doesn't include all KK, nor all 66/44/A4s, nor even all KQ as some will fall off during the hand.

Board: 4d 4s Qh 6h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.105% 42.11% 00.00% 8 0.00 { KcKs, KdKs, QQ, 6d6s, 5c5s, 44, AQs, Ah4h, KQs, 54s, AQo }
Hand 1: 57.895% 57.89% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AdAh }

I now think river is a snapcall, but raising isn't that good as when you are called you're at best 50% (or worse if he folds some AQ).