AKsooooooted - Family Pot

[22pajo]

Limit: $1/$2
9 players

Only read on SB (29/17/3 - 100 Hands) is that i had seen him flop 2 over cards on 2 occasions (once with QJo and the other with KQo) and call down UI against a preflop raiser each time.

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.
<font color="blue">It was nice of most of the table to come along for the ride </font>

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.
<font color="blue">I dont usually c-bet into 5 players with whiffed overs but i figured i might force out the button and/or get a free card and the pot was big</font>

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.
<font color="blue">So they all tag along merrily with me...
I dont see any point in c-betting here so i check behind</font>

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, 2 folds, Hero ???
<font color="blue"> My thoughts were that this guy has either;
a: waited for the river to bet his Trip J's or small set/FH, not likely
b: is betting A rag for value, likely
c: making a steal for the pot from up front, not likey </font>
Call?
Plan if you suggest raise and are 3bet?

[DrModern]

Raise. Call a 3-bet if the AF you have for him is over a decent-sized sample.

[bung]

I don't bet the flop here. If btn bets, call for 1 back to you, fold for 2 back to you. TWIWP, call river bet and go for overcalls.

[DrModern]

WTF is TWIWP?

Also why check this relatively dry flop? Also why no river raise? Villain will pay off with a worse A, which is his most likely holding, a huge percentage of the time.

[Neku]

[ QUOTE ]
"Also why no river raise? Villain will pay off with a worse A, which is his most likely holding, a huge percentage of the time."

[/ QUOTE ]

[quote bung]: "go for overcalls"[/quote bung]

although there's only one overcall left.

[DrModern]

Since there's only one overcall left, and you have no evidence that should lead you to believe he's calling, since the potential overcaller may call with a weaker A in any event, since you get the same number of bets from the bettor as from going for overcalls, since the risk of a 3-bet is relatively low, raising is better.

[Aaron W.]

I can see checking and betting the flop, depending on the chances of getting check-raised. Most often, you don't have the best hand, but the times that you do and get heads up with an inferior hand is solid money.

Turn check is fine.

The river play is interesting. I probably raise him because he apparently likes to show down too often and will call with far inferior hands. His aggression seems large enough that I would have expected him to check-raise the flop or something if he had a hand.

[bung]

TWIWP - the way it was played

I'm checking the flop, because there are too many players, you're trapped in the middle, there's a good chance that, AJ, QJ, KJ, JT, 33, 44 is in someone's range of hands.

I also don't see how one flop bet will fold anyone holding a better hand including, A4s, A3s, 99, TT. I'd rather bet the turn if checked to again.

I also just call the river, because I'm not sure that I have the best hand, but I do think I'm good 1 out of 8.5 times. There is no evidence that btn will call, but there's no evidence that he won't either. The point is, that I'm not closing the action, but I am prepared to SD for 1 bet. This board is the perfect board to slow-play trips, FH, so it would be difficult to pay 2bb when I could've paid just 1.

[Buzz-cp]

I think we can raise river and fold to a 3-bet. This is tough to swallow, which is why I don't usually raise here. He is not bluffing a busted draw, so the bettor is almost never folding with his pair.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
TWIWP - the way it was played

I'm checking the flop, because there are too many players, you're trapped in the middle, there's a good chance that, AJ, QJ, KJ, JT, 33, 44 is in someone's range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

While those hands are possible, it is far more likely to see a holding of QT, A7s, J8s, and other hands that completely missed this flop. Failing to bet out and claim part of this 10 SB pot is a mistake against those hands.

[ QUOTE ]
I also don't see how one flop bet will fold anyone holding a better hand including, A4s, A3s, 99, TT. I'd rather bet the turn if checked to again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the board texture again and ask yourself how many likely better hands there are out there and how many outs you have against them. Most of the time, you have 6 outs, though sometimes you only have 3. It's rare that you're drawing to runners on this board (sets/two pair only, and those are not likely on this board).

[ QUOTE ]
I also just call the river, because I'm not sure that I have the best hand, but I do think I'm good 1 out of 8.5 times. There is no evidence that btn will call, but there's no evidence that he won't either. The point is, that I'm not closing the action, but I am prepared to SD for 1 bet. This board is the perfect board to slow-play trips, FH, so it would be difficult to pay 2bb when I could've paid just 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seeing a full house based on the action is MUBS. While it's possible that a set check-called the flop intending to check-raise the turn, it's very unlikely. You need to consider the relative probabilities of events happening and place more consideration on the ones that are more common. Otherwise, you run into "OMG villain slowplayed turned quads!"