More 8/16 fun -- JJ river decision - someone help with math?

[aK13]

MP is a typical 8/16 player. Kinda loose about open limping, but has a very standard early position TAG-type opening range (AA-88, AK-AT, KQ-KJ) I don't know enough about him to know 100% sure this is his range, but just from the relative frequency of his PFR and comparing him to most other players.

SB is this regular named KC. He's been there every time I've been there, and he plays pretty ABC TAG style -- little weaker about value bets than I'd be but maybe I leak (or he has reads on people since he's alwyas there). I think he slightly overvalues pockets typically. He's stuck a little, and is shortstacked right now.

I think my image is pretty tight.

MP opens, I 3town on the button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , SB calls both, BB folds, MP calls.

Flop 3way: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, MP checks, I bet, SB 2bets it and is allin, MP thinks for a while and calls, I 3town again, MP calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP checks, I bet, MP calls.

What are you doing on rivers:

A?

K?

Q?

[marchron]

Depends on if MP donks or checks. I'm happy to check behind an A, might check behind a K, and I'm betting a Q for value (as a bet/fold obviously).

If an A hits the river and I get donked, I'm turbomucking. As a matter of fact, I'm folding to any donkbet; Villain seems to know his [censored] and would therefore realize that making you fold a better hand is not really worth it if SB wins the main pot.

[bravos1]

Marchron hit this pretty good except I'm not folding to "any" donk bet. If a 2, 4 or a 6 comes, I'm not folding to a donk. Any card < J I am calling a donk actually.

BTW, assuming this is at Bay101, your read on KC is pretty good if I'm talking about the same regular.

KC = old asian guy who does not say much at all. Plays his big pair PF strongly but will not cap JJ or 3 bet TT very often. He is aggro on the flop, but tends to get passive on the big bet streets.

Once again.. I assume this is Bay101 since you mentioned it in an earlier thread.

Hmm, I wonder if I have played w/ you?

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Marchron hit this pretty good except I'm not folding to "any" donk bet. If a 2, 4 or a 6 comes, I'm not folding to a donk. Any card < J I am calling a donk actually.

BTW, assuming this is at Bay101, your read on KC is pretty good if I'm talking about the same regular.

KC = old asian guy who does not say much at all. Plays his big pair PF strongly but will not cap JJ or 3 bet TT very often. He is aggro on the flop, but tends to get passive on the big bet streets.

Once again.. I assume this is Bay101 since you mentioned it in an earlier thread.

Hmm, I wonder if I have played w/ you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, KC is old asian guy. Always loves to sit in seats 1 or 9 (left or right of dealer) and uses his own personal Bay 101 swivel chair. And yeah, he's weak on big streets.

You may or may not have played with me -- never really noticed anyone who was particularly strong at the table, but that might be because tables are loose. I'm a really young-looking, not-your-typical-skinny asian guy (just turned 21 and also probably look like I'm way underage and have more meat on me than most asians my age). I was there last on Friday, wearing a backwards black LA Dodgers cap sitting in Seat 9.

I'll let you know next time I go -- I've restricted myself to only Fri/Sat, and I usually show up after lunch around 2 or 3 and stay to 9 or 10.

EDIT: Oh, and MP checks, action on you. What do you do against those cards?