big draw vs TAG

[CheapFlop]

Villain after 50 hands is a solid TAG 21/17/3.

I'm assuming villain has flopped either 2pr, a set or the straight.

Is this a situation for an easy push, or to demonstrate some pot control?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $24.75</font>
BB: $20.15
UTG: $18.45
MP: $24.75
CO: $15
BTN: $24.05

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO checks, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($1.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9.25</font>, <font color="red">Hero?????

[Keys Myaths]

Pot control is out the window at this point.

Shove, and hope he has JT.

[Tomke]

I don't think any decent TAG would limp QK, AT, AJ or TT+ on the button. I think he most likely overlimped with a suited connector, in which case there is a big chance you have him totally dominated. Therefor getting the money in on the flop while he still likes his hand a lot is probably best.

[jonyy6788]

Man this is a tricky situation. 50 hands isn't enough of a sample to understand what he limped OTB. I can't see him having TT, JJ, AA, KQ, AJ, or AT. He MAY have TJ and he could also have 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which we are killing.

Just assuming villain pushed AI instead of raising to $9.25, it would be 1.55:1 (or ~41% needed to justify call). Against TJ we're 51% to win, against 98s we're 65% favorite. Obv against a straight or higher two pair we're drawing to the flush.

I'm not quite sure which route is more +EV, pushing or calling.

[Artsemis]

I think its time to reconsider your forum handle.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its time to reconsider your forum handle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite sure what this means, but whatever.

The hand would be much easier to deal with if I could put BTN on a hand. It just makes no sense.

If you wanna shove, plz provide me a calc that says it's better than calling. Sometimes with the whole combo draw thing everyone gets all excited and wants to shove w/out even thinking of implied odds.

[tarheeljks]

i say get it in while he's interested. if he's combo drawing we want to get it in now so that he won't slow down on a blank turn card. even if he may still play it fast, we can guarantee we get his money in now. if he's not combo drawing and has JT or Ax, we don't want a club turn to slow down the action.

[Nick C]

I'm going to say that a Button overlimp with JT, KQ, AJ, or AT is not all that shocking. There were already two people in (one being a poster, I'll admit) when he called preflop.

Anyway, I don't think it matters tremendously what you do. But I think you have little if any folding equity at this point, and just calling now does give you the option of folding to a turn push if you whiff on the turn and that push comes. This will save you a little money on average, I think, as I don't think you're going to be drawing to 9 outs instead of 14 a fair chunk of the time (although if I had to put Villain on exactly one hand, it would be JT -- but followed very, very closely by KQ, which is in fact more likely in terms of combos). Then again, occasionally Villain will be getting aggro with a worse flush draw or QJ or something, and on those rare occasions, you might get pushed off of the best hand. And then also, since you are OOP, getting paid off on a flush card could be a little tricky, although I think that Villain has enough that donkbetting will work (he's not going to want to lay down his two pair or straight, and I do think those hands are his most likely holdings).

So I guess I think that just calling is best at this point. But I also think it's close.

[Nick C]

I guess we should consider the possibility that Villain might over-overlimp any-two suited on the Button, and if so that increases the likelihood of KcXc and QcXc somewhat (although the 3-bet, which is practically just a min/3-bet, seems trappier than that to me). But as the possibility that Villain has a totally dominated draw increases, so does the case for a flop push.

[derosnec]

you don't have a big draw.

AJT two clubs is a much different flop than 248 two clubs