VB this river? - 50NL

[Kasane]

I had no real read on villain. He seemed to like betting pot a lot, I'd seem him donk flop for full pot and get folds fairly often. I hadn't seen him show down much. Thoughts on other streets welcome.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $47.70
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $115.75</font>
UTG: $63.10
CO: $153.90
BTN: $61.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($5.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $5.25</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, CO folds, SB calls $8.75

<font color="black">River:</font> ($33.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero ...

[FullyBoat]

I think betting the flop (2/3 pot) on hands like this and seeing what happens will make your play on further streets much earlier.

As played, I probably put the villain all-in on the river. If he has AJ, he'd probably get it in on the turn since he's pretty short. To me this looks like a worse jack or maybe 99 / 10's ?

[fees]

lol @ not betting the flop dont bet the river

[Keys Myaths]

Wow, did you really not bet this flop?

[Chomp]

For me, pf is meh. I mean a fold is probably too nitty, and a 3b means we are committing ourselves to a biggish pot, 3 way, OOP with a hand that can get us in a lot of trouble. So maybe a call is ok, but I hate these spots.

And flop kinda bears this out...we have hit one of our cards and yet still really have no clue about the relative strength of our hand. A $3.25 bet might win it there and then, but you'd hate a call and a lot of turns are nasty for us. No idea which is the most EV move.

You have shown a ton of strength on the turn and villain calls anyway. I think his range to b/c must be: {AJ, QJ, JT, maybe TT, 99, FD+overs, maybe AK stabbing} That said, it is very hard to understand why those J hands don't bet flop. Hmmmmmmm. Odd.

So on river if we vbet (say 15) we are called by probably 2 worse hands and one better one. We fold out missed draws/TT/random pairs. We get c/r by random monsters, which is very unlikely. It's doubtful he'd look us up with a bluff catcher given turnaction.

Meh, I check behind as I think the vb is too thin and we are not called by enough worse hands to make it good. That said, I am starting to think 88-TT might be villain's holding here.

(Opinion, not advice).

[Kasane]

Yes, I really didn't bet this flop. And I don't think it's stupid. We've got a pf raiser in position against us. We've probably got the better hand. We're going to usually see a c-bet on this flop, pick that off and see the turn and play from there.

Betting out on this flop, and we can easily get pushed off the best hand (I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU) or be playing a bigger pot than we need to with a marginal hand OOP. C/c is much better IMO. I used to bet this flop often to balance out my donks with a set -- but I realized I was often burning money doing so.

What are you looking for when you bet this flop? A fold? A call? A raise from your opponent? None of those outcomes are particularly good.

[Keys Myaths]

[ QUOTE ]
(I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU)

[/ QUOTE ]

I make a lot of money off people like you.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(I'll raise with air against a flop donk -- maybe not multiway, but definitely HU)

[/ QUOTE ]

I make a lot of money off people like you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you do -- I doubt it. Works a ton, try it. It's opponent specific, obviously. Lot of people donk weak made hands like second pair, top pair weak kicker. They donk to see if they're good against your pf raise, or if you have a big pair. You raise, they fold. Next hand.

This post wasn't particularly about the flop play, but I guess that's what it turned into. I've gone your guys' way in the past, bet flop -- and I've come around to the c/c flop line. I want to play a medium size pot with a medium size hand. Betting this flop does almost nothing for me. I'm OOP with a made hand, I don't have a flush draw or a 4x hand. I'm not putting my stack in for TP2K. I donk this flop I'm bloating a pot with little chance of improvement OOP. If I check and it gets checked around, I can bet turn and reasonably get calls from 55-QQ, flush draws, and a lot of other stuff on the turn and river. If I c/c a bet from villain, I see turn and can act accordingly.

What does betting get you on this flop? Value from JT-QJ? 55-QQ? How many streets are we going to be betting for value OOP? I don't think you get more than 2 streets out of TP2K, and I'm more likely to go with getting them on turn, river with some good post flop play. Or on the flop and river, skipping turn.

[IshiP2U]

How fast did Villain call and then check the river? If I bet here it probably wouldn't be for value in the bet itself but it would be a weak bet to induce a river c/r AI bluff which I would be happy to call if I thought the previous action indicated villain was on a draw, etc....

[czGLoRy]

value bet flop and value bet river