Heads Up Challenge NLTRN

[matt nover]

My friend gave me 10 to 1 odds on a $100 bet that I couldn't win $1k playing strictly $5 HU SNGs on stars in one month. I played 250 before the challenge winning at a pace of 66%. I'm getting killed on 4 to 1's aipf right now and am starting to doubt if I can do it.

Any thoughts?

[cwar]

You cant.
EDIT: You have a chance if you can keep 15-20% ROI for the month and work 30+ hours a week 2 tabling.

[ChicagoRy]

The payoff on that bet should be worth it so that you will play at least 50 hours a week to fulfill that challenge. It can be done, it will just take hard work. You're doubling your money though on money made on matches + money made from bet, so that's double the profit of 5s. Unless you play 20-30s and are a winner normally, I would think this bet is +EV for you to work at, as you won't be losing money per hour played. Either way, if you do not play a lot this bet may be increasing your total profit per week.

[johnnyrocket]

yea this is extreme, u need to maintain a high roi and play tons of sessions, it would be much easier if u 8 tabled etc but u prolly dont at those stakes i assume. I would play some higher buy ins and not tell him lol

[ChicagoRy]

Just play 300 private matches. You lose 300 bucks taking on the person who plays you and your rake. Win 250, lose 50. 80% winrate, enough people buy the fact that you can win that much at the 5s anyways, so you make 700 bucks on the bet then.

Well I guess then you need to win another 75 bucks because he will assume .25 cents each match taken out in rake, but surely you can win 75 bucks in 5s throughout the month.

[matt nover]

It will be tough, but worth it I believe. Started off rough...running below average but it's starting to come around.

I don't know the point of diminishing returns with regards to number of tables at once. At that level, people usually don't change gears unless they are way down or way up...so I think 4-tabling is possible. I'm used to playing 2 or 3 at once.

[Nichomacheo]

Sure you can do this, but its a fool's game.

If you CAN win the bet, that means you CAN win more than $100 over that time by moving up to the $10s. So, you actually LOSE money by taking the bet.

[cwar]

He wins $1k I assume.

[matt nover]

Yeah, I would win 1k from the bet and 1k from the challenge.

[matt nover]

i will post some results after my session tonight