Live, Uberdeep, 1/2, Sneaky Trips

[Georgia Avenue]

7 handed
Bad guy has ~650 I cover.

Rock is out, making it 4 to go. 2 limpers (both deep) from MP, I raise with 67ss on button to 20, a blind, both limpers call.

Flop 566 two clubs. Checked to me I bet 45, bad guy makes it 145, back to me.

BG is pretty rational but aggressive, I’ve been playing rather tight since amassing a big stack.

What does he have and what do I do?

[IFeltYourRack]

Well considering he limp-called PF do you think he's now raising the aggressor with an over pair that he didn't raise himself PF? If he's reasonable I think he probably either has an over pair beat or has a big draw. Basically all hands that can beat an over pair also have you beat. Better hands are calling, big draws like 3c4c or 7c8c are likely calling and have ~40-45% equity respectively, and hands you have beat(bluffs) are probably folding.

I'd just call and see what he does on the turn.

[Georgia Avenue]

Awesome analysis. But if big draws will call, shouldn't I reraise? If not why not? Just becuase there's stuff out that beats me?

Aren't there a few other, lesser draws in his range?

[Albert Moulton]

He has a mid-sized overpair and hopes you will fold your "AK" to the c/r. Or he has a big combo-draw and plays his draws fast hoping to get it all in on the flop vs your "overpair." Or he has 6x or 55 where x is a bigger kicker than yours.

First, I really hate the size of your preflop raise.

Call, or make a smaller raise that sweetens the pot.

$20 is a waste of good position and a waste of excellent drawing cards.

It now makes your "deep" game play pretty shallow post flop. You are basically facing a pot-committing decision on the flop instead of having a deep stack to play with.

Now that you are in this messy situation, you should push if villain makes this move and will call your push with mid-sized overpairs and/or all kinds of suited connector combo draws. If he really is "reasonable" then you can pretty much assume he'll fold the overpairs. On the other hand, if villain is not that aggressive with his draws, then you should call and consider folding if he pushes the turn. A "reasonable" player who doesn't play draws aggressively will probably not c/r you then push the turn with a mid-sized overpair, or a draw that missed.

So, I'd call and see what the turn brings.

But you set this bad situation up with your over-sized raise with small suited connectors from the button.

[jhill3535]

I disagree that the raise to 20 is a waste.

In a game where the effective stack size is 300bb+ a raise 10bb is like a raise to 3bb in a game with 100bb effective stacks.

[Georgia Avenue]

Also dont forget that this was essentially 2/4 because of the UTG forced straddle to 4. So there was $15 in the pot already. This WAS a sweetner vs these stack sizes.

[Georgia Avenue]

Albert: More good analysis but I didnt have too much info on this guy. I suspected that the reraise was to make me fold...I had been pretty nitty in the past few hours. Isn't there anything to be said for the in-between 3bet? Say 200 more?

[moldman]

To me, it seems like he has a big draw or overpair - maybe 55, but wouldn't people generally slowplay the flopped boat here in hopes of someone chasing the flush and letting it get there?

Anyway, I think I repop and try to get it all in here. The only thing you really hate to see is another 6, which is possible, but not sure you can get away from that here.

[Georgia Avenue]

So I put his range as
[55,68/69,A6]

[overpair to TT, combo draw like 79cc/78cc/34cc, Axcc, KQ-9cc, maybe JTcc, QTcc, 78 or pure bluff]

Yes? I'm ahead of this range, obv, but I hate a lot of turns. The fundamental question is what do I do if I cold call and a scary card comes? He might get it in with this range now...AND

I think a straight push gets called MORE often by a combo draw BUT a call gets money from a overpair. DILEMMA!

[boondockst]

This is a sad, sad thread.

[ QUOTE ]
he's reasonable I think he probably either has an over pair beat

[/ QUOTE ]


We're talking LIVE 1/2 and OP said the player is bad. You're saying he only has 55 or 6x? Is the Villain in the blind or one of the limpers? He's aggressive how? Preflop? Postflop? Some of the responses are on right tracks potentially but arent correct in the context used.

[ QUOTE ]
I suspected that the reraise was to make me fold

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? Is this something you say at the table, "Hmmmmmm he wants me to fold........I'm all in"

Maybe you mean something else by it but it's too vague of a statement. I dont understand why he cant have 77-TT here and not raised preflop. I've seen tons of people get AI with low overpairs after limping PF.

Is this an uncapped game? You've amassed 3.5 buyins and he covers and you've been there for at least a few hours yet you have no information. I hate to let the apparent big secret out but pay attention at the table!!!