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#1
05-04-2007, 12:07 PM
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Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
MP2 is 22.89/10.84/1.36 over 83 hands
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $109 BB: $200 UTG: $144.45 UTG+1: $534.70 MP1: $82.05 <u>MP2: $98.05</u> MP3: $98.70 CO: $213.35 <u>Hero (BTN): $226.10</u> <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players) UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $6</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $4 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($27) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players) UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $24</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $99</font> I really think that this is breakeven at best, probably slightly -EV. I figure if I am called I don't have enough equity to make the play breakeven on average. If he has a set I have about 26.5% equity and if he just has a pair of Aces then I have about 38.5% equity. So if he calls the final pot is 208.10 and I have equity between $55.15 and $80.12. My question is: Do I get a fold here often enough to make this play +EV given the effective stack sizes? And a side question: Even if I don't get a fold here often enough to make this +EV, does this play help me get paid off later (metagame benefits)? 
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#2
05-04-2007, 07:31 PM
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Re: Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
Difficult question you have to guess how much of the time he has what... Assume he only calls with AK (12 way), AJs (2 way)(not gonna play that offsuit) or a set (nine ways) or i think you forgot KQs (which is marginal part of his range). We could average you equity then to about 34%. According to my calculations he has to fold 28% of his hands. So what you then have to consider is would he play 28% of his hands in the same manner even when betting into four people... He may do that with AQ but with KK QQ or air isn't that to daring? And will he lay down AQ? I think it is really not +ev, the fact is that the more people in your hand make his range tightery! HU it could be a borderline, but now you don't only need to assign a tighter range to him but also have the deepstacked UTG+1 still in. As i think about it it is either move in or fold, because if you call you need the overcall to have enough IMO. Moreover raising could knock you down if UTG+1 wakes up, ehh so maybe you should just fold. Damn small stacks...
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#3
05-04-2007, 09:38 PM
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Re: Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
too drunk to do the maths, but i think it's good to shove when you have a flush draw + straight draw + FE. as played without a good straight draw I'm probably just folding this
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#5
05-04-2007, 10:20 PM
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Re: Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
[ QUOTE ]
he's calling here pretty much always [/ QUOTE ] I only need him to fold 1/4 of the time. His line really looks weak to me and makes me think that I could get this fold half the time. Turns out he flopped top set, and he is never folding that.
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#6
05-04-2007, 10:21 PM
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Re: Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] he's calling here pretty much always [/ QUOTE ] I only need him to fold 1/4 of the time. His line really looks weak to me and makes me think that I could get this fold half the time. Turns out he flopped top set, and he is never folding that. [/ QUOTE ] people don't cbet into 3ppl on that flop without the goods very often
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#9
05-04-2007, 10:30 PM
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Re: Flush Draw + Fold Equity = +EV?
[ QUOTE ]
People also don't usually raise to 3bb after a EP limper with a premium hand either. [/ QUOTE ] this happens all the time
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