I think my KK is busted, but can I fold it?

[Douglas Leslie]

I only have about 100 hands on UTG1 and no real reads. His stats are 12.75:6.86:2.
MP1 has only played one orbit, but has played quite a few hands including J9o in early position.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG1 caps</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16.75 BB)

Obviously it was an easy decision to call after the flop was capped because the pot is so large that it is worth calling in the hope of spiking a King. How do you fancy your chances here if a brick falls on the turn and it is bet/call to you? Does it make any difference if it is a heart?
When a seemingly solid player, albeit on a limited hand sample, limps and then cold calls a capped flop, then bets and caps an eight high flop against three opponents who are still unlimited, how likely is it that KK is winning? Is this pot too large to give up on the turn? If you call the turn, are you committing yourself to call on the river?
I was pretty certain that I was behind after the flop betting, but should I be calling down regardless?

[Aaron W.]

You have position on both players. I'm at least calling down if it's never two bets to me. If the third flush card comes and the action picks up, I'll consider folding.

[Douglas Leslie]

Given the size of the pot, I think that most of us would call down provided it wasn't raised ahead of us. But should we? What possible hand can we put UTG1 on that we beat? And there is nothing to say that MP1 doesn't have aces either, although he is not the main concern. UTG1 seems to be a decent player who is not worried about the possibility of being up against KK. He is not likely to be bluffing in a multi-way pot. When a pot gets this large, are we supposed to forget about card reading and just call the turn regardless? Actually, the pot is large enough that with implied odds it might be arithmetically correct to call a turn bet even knowing that we are behind provided that we can fold the river UI, but how likely is that?

[Neku]

*grunching*

At the flop, you're probably still ahead - only AA, 88, 66 or 22 beats you here.

Still, if the turn is not a heart or an A, I'd raise again. Likewise on the river.

Against a bet and a raise, you're getting 10:1 on the turn, which is probably a bit slim to call down. I think this is one of those situations where I call while knowing better deep inside (see also: my May goal not to do that anymore [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ).

[Douglas Leslie]

Neku, what hands do you think that you are ahead of that are consistent with the action so far?
UTG1 is a solid player who limped and then called when it was four to him. What can he have to do this?
He then bets and caps the flop, so what hands can he have that are consistent with the pre-flop action?
In descending order of likelihood I would guess that he could have AA, KK, AhKh. He could have 88,66 or 22 but he might well have folded pre-flop with these hands when it was capped. Similarly he might have folded if he had limped AhQh or AhJh.
Raising the flop here would be a mistake because you are behind far more often than you are ahead of his likely hand range. If the turn is not a heart I guess that I would call in the hope that he is pumping a big heart draw, but I would feel pretty sick about calling a heart on the river. If the turn is a heart, I think I am done playing the hand.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

i still think im ahead, but im not raising any more.

i call down for 1 bet/street regardless....

if another 8 comes off, a flush, or a T and its 2 bets to us i can maybe fold it

[OziBattler]

Doug, Im sensing some result orientedness here

[ QUOTE ]
You have position on both players. I'm at least calling down if it's never two bets to me. If the third flush card comes and the action picks up, I'll consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Neku, what hands do you think that you are ahead of that are consistent with the action so far?

[/ QUOTE ]
flushdraw. maybe his stats dont indicate UTG would necessarily play the flush draw this way but it is only 100 hands. MP could be a spaz with 2 pair or less and you can counterfiet him.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (16.75 BB)

[/ QUOTE ]

Im calling down if it is one to me. no hearts please dealer.

what was the action on the turn? check, bet and 1 bet to you, you dont fold and UTG pops a CR? Im in a speculating mood.....

[Douglas Leslie]

The turn was K of clubs, so the whole question became academic! At the time I called the flop cap though, I was having serious doubts what I was going to do if a King didn't land on the turn. I just couldn't see any way that I was likely to be ahead with that betting, but wondered what other players would do with the hand if a blank or alternatively a heart came.

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
but wondered what other players would do with the hand if a blank or alternatively a heart came.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats why I ask what was the turn action when it got to you.....

[Douglas Leslie]

Assume that it was bet, call to you. Do you call a non-heart turn? What if it is a heart?