Big Reraise on Flop

[AlexB182]

Unfortunately, it seems impossible to convert hands from Pacific, I'll do my best to provide a clear hand history though.

Pacific Poker, PLO, .25 / .50
8 Players, Hero: 31.30 $, Villain 48.50 $

Hero is CO+1 and is dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG calls, 2 fold, Hero raises to 1.50, CO calls, Button (Villain) calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls. Pot 7.40$

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 2.50, CO folds, Button raises to 14.90, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls (bad call?)
Pot: 35.70$

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain goes all in (32.10), Hero calls (14.90)
Pot: 81.20$




River: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero shows straight, A to 5. Villain shows Full, fives over threes and collects 81.20$.

Thank you very much for your opinions in advance!!!

[AlexB182]

Nearly forgot it, my basic concerns are:
- Does that PF raise make sense?Maybe too small?
- Flop bet ok?
- Do I have to fold to the reraise on the flop?

Thank you very much for your help!!

[davalii]

Fold preflop.

[guilt_trip]

Pot preflop

Arrrrrrrrr in on the flop

[JackInDaCrak]

and definitely push the turn.

[AlexB182]

you think there are chances he folds when I push the straight?

might have been...

[solinar]

On the flop, vs a dry top set you are 60/40 underdog, worst case scenario (top set + 46) you still have 28% pot equity. I think flop call of the reraise is ok, although it would be nice if your stack was a bit deeper.

On the turn, if he's bad, he could probably do this with a set or maybe even top 2 + K high club redraw. Its less likely he is reraising A4 or 46 on the flop. Of those, 46 is the only one that you are behind on, and even then you still have 22% equity vs a dry 46 due to your nut flush draw.

I think a turn push is appropriate.

Keep in mind I'm an Omaha newbie.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
you think there are chances he folds when I push the straight?

might have been...

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but since you're not folding if you're behind, you might as well not let him have a free card if you're ahead.

[iggymcfly]

I really don't like the weak bet on the flop. You need to hit this hard with a pot-sized bet and get some fold equity or at least get stacks in quickly so you don't have to play multiple streets without much idea where you are. With that said, you're going to lose your stack pretty much every time here no matter how you play it. Just one of those Omaha coinflips you ended up on the wrong side of.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
Nearly forgot it, my basic concerns are:
- Does that PF raise make sense?Maybe too small?
- Flop bet ok?
- Do I have to fold to the reraise on the flop?

Thank you very much for your help!!

[/ QUOTE ]

PF raise is fine. It's never bad to get 5% of your stack in with a well-coordinated hand. ONe could argue that the button might have folded his 55xx for $2.25, but I doubt it. If he's calling $1.5 i don't think the extra 0.75 will phase him.

The flop bet is not ideal, but not terrible either. It will usually encourage either a bunch of callers or a big raise. Given your stack size and your hand you can easily handle either of these scenarios. However, it could make the turn messy.

Folding the flop raise is catagorically wrong here. You're shallow enough that you have almost enough pot odds to push back against a set (final pot will be $64, pushing costs $27.3, and you have 40% equity). Against a certain set you can simply call and fold if the turn pairs. If anything else comes you will have plenty of pot odds to call all-in.

Let's consider what happens against a set. On the turn, one of five things can happen: it pairs, you hit your straight, you hit your flush, you hit your Ace, or it bricks.

1) board pairs (7 cards). You fold and lose -$12.4 (price of your call)
2) you get your straight (3 cards). You go-all in with 70% equity (against a random, but co-ordinated set - sometimes he'll have a straight to or a draw to one)
3) you get your flush (8 cards). You go-all in with 76% equity (higher because now his straights are irrelevant).
4) you hit your Ace (2 cards). You go all-in with 91% equity.
5) it bricks (23 cards). You call all-in with 35% equity.

Your average equity in the last 4 sceanarios is about 50%. So if your remaing stack is "S" the final pot will be:
P = $34.5 + 2S (assumes $3 rake)

Your share of this pot will be 50% (your equity) of this, or, $17.25 + S. Since it cost you $12.4 + 2S to get here, your net expected value is:
EV = 17.25 + S - 12.4 - S = +$4.85

You'll realize this profit when you see the river (36 times out of 43 turns). You total EV for this line is:

EV_total = (7/43)*(-12.4) + (36/43)*(+4.85) = +$2.04.

So this line will always be profiable in the long run, if he always calls when you hit the turn (which starts to become doubtful as your stack get's larger - but this is at least partially offset by implied odds you might have if you hit on the river after the turn bricks).

However, there is a chance that your villain has a hand like 2 pair or a draw. If so, this line will see you folding turns you shouldn't. Against 2 pair you have about 54% equity on the flop, against a pair and a good draw (like 4567) you have 63% equity. For these hands you should push now, and with an average equity of, let's say, 56% your EV will be:

total_EV = (0.56)(34.5+2S) - (12.4 + S) = +6.92 + 0.12S

However, if you do this against a set, you only have 40% equity:

total_EV = (0.40)(34.5+2S) - (12.4 + S) = +1.4 - 0.2S

For this line to have the same equity as the calling and folding if the turn pairs, he has to have something other than a set "x" of teh time:

(6.92 +0.12S)(x) + (1.4-0.2S)(1-x) >= 2.04

x >= (0.64 + 0.2S)/(5.52 + 0.32S)

For your stack of $14.9 (after you call the flop) this means:

x >= 0.35

So if he has something other than a set more than 35% of the time, you should push.

If you were deeper, like you had a pot bet left for the turn (S = $35) then :

x >= 0.45

So he has to have a lot of non-sets as you get deeper to justify a push.