5/01 Golden State VS Dallas

dreamcrusha · #1 05-01-2007, 03:14 PM

What are you thoughts on this game? GS +9 smells like a rat to me. I know, I know GS has dominated and is up 3-1 for that reason I presume Joe Public will be all over GS tonight. I always search for this type of situation where the line doesn't make sense and fade the public(it usually works). I don't know how but I predict Dallas will cover this spread and force a Game 6. Ship it holla! Thoughts welcome.

rjp · #2 05-01-2007, 03:15 PM

GSW +9.5 or better is +EV (at -110 or better, of course).

Anything else and it's likely better you just watch. GSW -160 for the series is a nice price, though.

dreamcrusha · #3 05-01-2007, 03:23 PM

Thanks for your response I agree that GSW -160 is attractive. I agree GSW sounds +EV on the surface but it doesn't account for the fix/setup factor-which I believe still happens, especially in the playoffs. There has been too many sweeps this postseason. I bet the NBA needs misses those playoff ratings< dontcha think? I still believe Dallas wins (and covers tonight) creating a little suspense and prolonging the series.

MyPetTurtle · #4 05-01-2007, 04:45 PM

Golden State at -160 (1.62) to win the series is horrible value.

The line on Betfair for Dallas in game 4 (Dallas 2-1 down and away) was 1.62. The line for tonight's game (Dallas 3-1 down and home) is 1.21.

Assuming Dallas win, I think they will be 1.55 to 1.6 for game 6 at Golden State. If Dallas win game 6, they will be 1.15 to 1.2 to finish game 7 at home.

If my predicted lines are accurate, then the series line should be 2.16 to 2.32. Right now the series line is about 2.42 on Betfair.

4Tay · #5 05-01-2007, 04:52 PM

I'd wait until after tonight's game to bet the series line. I can't see Dallas losing today, especially at home.

MyPetTurtle · #6 05-01-2007, 05:01 PM

If/when the Mavs win tonight the series line will plunge. Go now.

Artdogg · #7 05-01-2007, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Golden State at -160 (1.62) to win the series is horrible value.

The line on Betfair for Dallas in game 4 (Dallas 2-1 down and away) was 1.62. The line for tonight's game (Dallas 3-1 down and home) is 1.21.

Assuming Dallas win, I think they will be 1.55 to 1.6 for game 6 at Golden State. If Dallas win game 6, they will be 1.15 to 1.2 to finish game 7 at home.

If my predicted lines are accurate, then the series line should be 2.16 to 2.32. Right now the series line is about 2.42 on Betfair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what your decimal numbers mean, but you are nuts if you think -160 is horrible value. -150 is available as well and obviously better value. Either way though I'd rather bet GS this game and chase on game 6 if they lose, because I don't see them winning game 7 if it comes to it.

GooseHinson · #8 05-01-2007, 05:03 PM

I can't imagine GS +9 being value. However GS moneyline would be. If they lose it will probably be by more then 9, but I think they win about 30-35% of the time.

rjp · #9 05-01-2007, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There has been too many sweeps this postseason.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is hardly statistically significant.

rjp · #10 05-01-2007, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine GS +9 being value. However GS moneyline would be. If they lose it will probably be by more then 9, but I think they win about 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in seeing your margin of victory distribution that supports this notion.

If GSW true odds are 30-35% then you should put a nice chunk down on GSW +9.5.