Re: probability of making 2 quads in a row
The odds of making quads by the river with a pocket pair is 1*C(48,3)/C(50,5) = 0.00816, or slightly less than 1%. The odds of two consecutive quads from pocket pairs is this number squared, which is ~ 1 in 15005.
The chance of consecutive pocket pairs in any two hands is 6*13/C(52,2) = 0.0588.
Thus the chance of getting both a pocket pair and quads in two consecutive hands is these numbers multiplied together, i.e. ~1 in 255,105.
So if you play a 1001 hands a day, containing 1000 consecutive hands, you'll see this 1-(1-(1/255106))^1000 = 0.4% of the time. So it's a fairly rare occurence, but something that could happen several times or more in your poker lifetime. After 100,000 hands, this will have happened to only 1/3 of players. So count yourself lucky [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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05-01-2007, 04:21 PM
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