Baseball Strategy: Underdog Moneyline and Underdog -1.5 same game

[Fraubump]

I haven't done much sports betting, but I look at the lines and I notice that baseball lines are set up so that the favorite in a moneyline wager is always the underdog in the -1.5 run line.

I assume the stategy of betting both the underdog for moneyline and the underdog for the run line, which is apprently always the other team, has been proven unworthy because of the prevalence of 1 run wins by moneyline favorites, but I'm wondering if anyone has crunched the numbers on it.

Take Tuesday's Ariz/LA game, for example:

Ariz +146
LA -157

And the run line

Ariz +1.5 -160
LA -1.5 +140

So you bet $100 on Ariz +146 and $100 on LA -1.5 +140.

Ariz Wins, you win $46
LA wins by 1 you lose $200
LA wins by 2+ you win $40

For the strategy to work LA has to win by 1 less than about 20% of the time.

That was the most attractive line for this strategy for the day. If both lines are closer to par it's obviously riskier.

Relevent considerations:

Avoid games likely to be low-scoring pitching duels.

Maybe avoid betting on home teams -1.5 as I'm guessing there is a greater number of 1 run games won by home teams due to 9th inning/extra inning come-from-behind (or from a tied situation) wins.

In a totally unscientific 1 day of data for 4/29, if you had bet the slate in this manner you would have run the table: two 1-run games, but both won by underdog.

Anyway, I'd be curious to hear any comments about the general concept.

[ImStillBen]

ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

[Rick305]

ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

[Fraubump]

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ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

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Um, YOU'RE

[easternbloc]

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[ QUOTE ]
ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

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Um, YOU'RE

[/ QUOTE ]

ZOMG YOUR A GRAMMAR GENIUZ

[Performify]

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For the strategy to work LA has to win by 1 less than about 20% of the time.


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From the Forum FAQ:

How often are Major League Baseball games decided by one run?
# From Betting Baseball by Michael Murray, when the home team wins they win by 1 run 31.7% of the time. When the away team wins, its by 1 run 23.6% of the time
# Keep in mind, however, that a game is more likely to be decided by 1 run if it is lower scoring, and less likely to be decided by 1 run if it is high scoring.

[Homer]

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ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

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This is exactly why no one even bothers to try to post an original thought on this forum. There is no upside. I'd like to request that all the responses in this thread be deleted except for Performify's good answer.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
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ZOMG YOUR A GENIUZ

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This is exactly why no one even bothers to try to post an original thought on this forum. There is no upside. I'd like to request that all the responses in this thread be deleted except for Performify's good answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I back this. Too much of this goes on. If you feel someone's question is "below" you, just ignore it.

[Mojo56]

We did this on another forum a few years back. Called it "BATORF" (Bet against the one run final). You didn't bet on games when the total was 7' or lower and there had to be a minimum payback when you added the moneylines together. You would also bet so as to assure an equal payout if you hit. It did well in 2003 but when I did it in May of 2004 I lost a nice chunk, including 11 units in one day.

[Fraubump]

Ok, what the hell, I'll put up some money to test the theory and post results in this thread.

Guiding precepts: pick games that look to be high scoring; pick games where the away team is the run line underdog; pick games where both moneyline underdog and run line underdog offer good prices.

All bets will be 1 unit.

5/1

Fl +135
NYM -1.5 +140

Balt +112
Det -1.5 +160