Should I even bet this river?

00Snitch · #1 04-30-2007, 07:44 AM

This is going to sound stupid. Also, PF may be a bit fishy, but I've been card dead an it looked like a good excuse to play a hand and I like playing hands.

OK, so seriously, this guy has to have a big jack or a big draw. I guess there is some chance that he has a set, but not much.

If I bet and he has a missed draw he will fold. If I check he might bluff his missed draw.

Wont he also bet heaps of other worse hands here?

Whatever, maybe I'm being stupid.

Full Tilt 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, SB calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, SB folds, Hero caps, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets.

Final Pot: 13 BB

milesdyson · #2 04-30-2007, 08:00 AM

Yes, bet. You'll see good hands check behind all the time if you check. He will never ever bet AcQc but he might call with it. Most people will check behind KJ/AJ here, many will check behind QQ/KK/AA, and almost everyone will check behind TT/99 if they got to the river like this.

Fadook · #3 04-30-2007, 08:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so seriously, this guy has to have a big jack or a big draw. I guess there is some chance that he has a set, but not much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bit confused by this. Why can't he have a big PP? They'd all play like this. If you check he'll probably check behind, out of sheer confusion if nothing else. Bet/call.

OziBattler · #4 04-30-2007, 08:28 AM

hero bets. given the action you crush his likely holdings and you dont want this checked through

if he folds, then well you dont have to show your J5 "but it was sooted"...of course you might want him to see it if it will tilt him yo [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

did you have some sort of read that you missed in the OP?

00Snitch · #5 04-30-2007, 08:34 AM

He may have a big PP, but he would probably cap preflop with one of them.

Obviously when I say he has to have whatever, I am still estimating. I am somtimes confused with, but not actually God.

Thanks for the input miles. I don't know why I was confused with this, I guess I was overthinking things.

I put him on a flush draw. Then I thought, if he had AJ/KJ/QJ or whatever, he might bet if I checked to him on the river. He might also bet his busted draw on the "scary" river card

Results:

I bet, he called and mucked QhJh. miles wins.

00Snitch · #6 04-30-2007, 08:35 AM

nah, I had no read. I had like 20 hands on him at the time and I was multi-table, so not really paying attention.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #7 04-30-2007, 08:41 AM

pretty sure i call the 3bet and c/r/cap the turn.

as played def bet the river.

he has a high PP like always doesnt he? or maybe AJ/KJs... i dont see why you would think he could have a draw, unless its exactly AcKc or AcQc

fretelöo · #8 04-30-2007, 08:43 AM

Do you guys like villains donk?

BigBadBabar · #9 04-30-2007, 09:50 AM

easy riv bet sir

marchron · #10 04-30-2007, 09:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He may have a big PP, but he would probably cap preflop with one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, he would have, if you, you know, three-bet.

Someone's gotta say it: fold PF. If you're getting enticed to play crap like this because you're bored, get a desk light and a piece of aluminum foil, and distract yourself with how shiny it is.