Several questions and an odd one.

[MegaloMialo]

For how many more years will the total oil reserve last?
How far have we come in developing powerful electricity engines?
What makes the transition so hard from regular engines to alternative fuel engines?
The slow process of developing new technology? The structure of the current market? A lack of interest from the consumers?
How much efforts and money are the different car company's investing in new technology?
What company's are investing the most?
Technology wise, where are we currently doing most progress?
What new technology is waiting around the corner that we should anticipate and be most excited over?

And i would like to add a one more question.
Why don't airplanes have parachutes?
I know most accidents occur during take off or landing but for those rare occasions when something goes wrong in the air it would be nice with a big parachute to bring us down safely.

Thanks.

[hmkpoker]

So that you all know, OP's account name means "big brain."

[arod18]

...and why do 24 hour stores have locks on the doors??

[Kaj]

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For how many more years will the total oil reserve last?

[/ QUOTE ]

Constant source of debate. As I saw one oil industry consultant put it (roughly), "we've been predicting for 30 years that there's only 30 years supply left." That said, it is projected that China's oil demand will be higher in 15 years than the entire yearly supply generated today. So it's difficult to say as it is very demand dependent, and also dependent on how suppliers choose to meet this demand. Also, as demand becames high enough, formerly cost-prohibitive sources of supply may be utilized.

[ QUOTE ]
What makes the transition so hard from regular engines to alternative fuel engines?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a number of issues, amongst them being the entire supply and infrastructure chain. Synthetic fuels which could be used by existing engines are produced in very small amounts and expensive. As for new engine designs, the biggest hurdle is that manufacturers are very good at what they do -- building combustion engines -- and don't have enough incentive to venture out and compete against their own profitable products. Until demand dictates it, there will be a supply problem. I don't have a link, but read an interesting paper on how this also occurred to the US aircraft industry, which went from leaders in piston-driven engines and then lagged the world in jet development.

[ QUOTE ]
The slow process of developing new technology?

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said, I think part of it is that the car makers have a disincentive to branch out due to their own successful lines. It's hard to put too much risk into an alternative technology when it might fall flat (as many do) and when business pressures in a competitive market don't give you the wiggle room to fail, as shareholders want steady returns now in these industries, not risky speculation.

[ QUOTE ]
The structure of the current market? A lack of interest from the consumers?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, demand may pick up as oil prices stay high. It's too bad many would rather use bullying foreign policy to reduce prices rather than just buy more efficient cars. I used to drive a Jeep Cherokee at 19 mpg, I now have a 39 mpg compact and love it.


[ QUOTE ]
How much efforts and money are the different car company's investing in new technology?
What company's are investing the most?
Technology wise, where are we currently doing most progress?
What new technology is waiting around the corner that we should anticipate and be most excited over?

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of my league. I know more about aviation industry alternative fuels and fuel efficiency projects than I do automotive.


[ QUOTE ]

And i would like to add a one more question.
Why don't airplanes have parachutes?
I know most accidents occur during take off or landing but for those rare occasions when something goes wrong in the air it would be nice with a big parachute to bring us down safely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some newer small planes do. The parachutes needed for an airliner would be colossal and outrageously expensive and technologically difficult.

[MegaloMialo]

Thanks for your replies kaj.
Why do you think it would be so technologically difficult to do the same thing with a bigger airplane?
Why would the cost be colossal?

[almostbusto]

re: oil reserves.


This planet will NEVER run out of oil, with the development and infrastructure we have in place oil won't ever get that mispriced for that long.


conceivably there could come a time where oil is expensive enough that using it to fuel a car would be silly. But if oil hits that high of price, there is really no need to worry since substitutes will be fully developed at that point, since the profit motive of developing a great substitute for oil would be huge. As such, there would be a great amount of money invested in research.

We are already seeing this process in motion.

[Kaj]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your replies kaj.
Why do you think it would be so technologically difficult to do the same thing with a bigger airplane?
Why would the cost be colossal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bigger airplanes weigh a lot more and fly a lot faster. Trying to get them to safely deploy a parachute would be very difficult. The parachute system would also have to be huge, and thus very heavy --> meaning an even bigger airplane with more drag, more weight, etc. As just an anecdote, I worked on a program where we looked at replacing parachutes for missile tests, and the parachute system alone was $150K -- and that was for a 2500-lb missile, not a 200,000-lb airliner (granted, there were less economies of scale for production).

And you are welcome -- good questions.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your replies kaj.
Why do you think it would be so technologically difficult to do the same thing with a bigger airplane?
Why would the cost be colossal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bigger airplanes weigh a lot more and fly a lot faster. Trying to get them to safely deploy a parachute would be very difficult. The parachute system would also have to be huge, and thus very heavy --> meaning an even bigger airplane with more drag, more weight, etc. As just an anecdote, I worked on a program where we looked at replacing parachutes for missile tests, and the parachute system alone was $150K -- and that was for a 2500-lb missile, not a 200,000-lb airliner (granted, there were less economies of scale for production).

And you are welcome -- good questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, for every pound increase in airplane weight, you need a half-pound increase in parachute weight. But now the plane has gone up another half-pound, demanding a quarter-pound parachute weight.....OH NOES AN INFINITELY HEAVY PLANE!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Kaj]

[ QUOTE ]
So, for every pound increase in airplane weight, you need a half-pound increase in parachute weight. But now the plane has gone up another half-pound, demanding a quarter-pound parachute weight.....OH NOES AN INFINITELY HEAVY PLANE!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You end up too heavy to fly ... so try to put it on rails ... no risk of falling from the sky ... solved! I'll call it the .... hmmmm... locomotive! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
re: oil reserves.


This planet will NEVER run out of oil, with the development and infrastructure we have in place oil won't ever get that mispriced for that long.


conceivably there could come a time where oil is expensive enough that using it to fuel a car would be silly. But if oil hits that high of price, there is really no need to worry since substitutes will be fully developed at that point, since the profit motive of developing a great substitute for oil would be huge. As such, there would be a great amount of money invested in research.

We are already seeing this process in motion.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is optimistic (although not unrealistically so). Hopefully substitutes will be fully developped by then. Whether or not they are depends on how quickly supplies dwindle after production peaks and how foresighted policy makers are (in terms of how well they encourage every avenue of research and development).

There is absolutely no way you can just say substitues will be available when these haven't even been developed yet.

Perhaps the surest way not to develop them is to simply assume someone else will figure it out and thus not make any plans at all.