NL50 - small set and facing heat.

kosher · #1 04-29-2007, 01:29 AM

I had a horrible feeling that the only thing villain could have here was a set, and since my set is the lowest possible, a set better than mine.

I am wondering if anyone lays this down. What is my line from here if I am not going to lay it down straight away?

Villain is 34/9.7/1.6 over 580 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|

Hero ($64.30)
MP1 Villain ($83.95)
MP2 ($44.25)
CO ($24)
Button ($64.85)
SB ($39)
BB ($15.55)
UTG ($33.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, Villain calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets $1.5, SB folds, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.5, Villain raises to $14, Hero ???
[/b]

Thanks guys - your thoughts are much appreciated.

Das Budrick · #2 04-29-2007, 01:43 AM

Well if villain is 34 VPIP seems pretty loose, I'd be looking to get it all in. I would crai turn

pterodactyl_ · #3 04-29-2007, 02:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well if villain is 34 VPIP seems pretty loose, I'd be looking to get it all in. I would crai turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this as well.

kosher · #4 04-29-2007, 02:28 AM

Hmm, Okay. Thanks for the replies.

What about trying to put villain on a hand here.

He just called in PF so I would say he is very unlikeley to have a big pair (QQ+).

He might have JJ or AT. But given his Agg. factor is not overly high, surely he wouldnt bet this way with those hands (maybe JJ). The only hands I can see him betting the way he has is with T7 (2 pair) or a set. Even tho he is loose, I really cant see him limping in with T7...

So the way I see it he most likey has a set.

Perhaps I could min raise him back and if he comes over the top I can be pretty sure hes got a set??

What do you think of my logic?

CalledDownLight · #5 04-29-2007, 02:33 AM

or he could have 56 or 89 or T7. I literally think that there are two levels where you can ever fold a set on a dryish board and that would be NL100 and NL200 on stars and only vs. very few opponents. Folding a set at NL50 makes it seem like you hat money.

FWIW, I like CRAI on turn also.

retep · #6 04-29-2007, 03:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He just called in PF so I would say he is very unlikeley to have a big pair (QQ+).

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[ QUOTE ]
Even tho he is loose, I really cant see him limping in with T7...

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[ QUOTE ]
So the way I see it he most likey has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but unless you can see his cards he doesnt

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I could min raise him back and if he comes over the top I can be pretty sure hes got a set??

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not do that.

pterodactyl_ · #7 04-29-2007, 03:39 AM

He's raising 10% of his hands so I'm pretty sure he'd be raising TT here ( though this is obviously not certain). Only two hands youre behind (6 total combos) and youre ahead of T7, 89, 56, AT and air. I'm laying this down never.

Your image is also important here. Has he seen you get out of line? If so he might think youre messing with him and decide its time to take a stand, especially if you two have already tangled.

kosher · #8 04-29-2007, 04:43 AM

Okay well thanks for the replies. FWIW i think you are all right - you cant lay this down. Even tho I did think he was on a set I raised him all in anyway with the exact thinking you guys have. "You cant lay down a set at NL50". My question is now this:

Even tho I thought he had a set - do I still put him all in?

Here are the results of the hand:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($64.30)
MP1 Villain ($83.95)
MP2 ($44.25)
CO ($24)
Button ($64.85)
SB ($39)
BB ($15.55)
UTG ($33.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, Villain calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets $1.5, SB folds, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.5, Villain raises to $14, Hero raises to $67.3 (All-In), Villain calls $51.30.

Turn: ($134.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($134.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $134.60

Results:
Hero has 4d 4s (three of a kind, fours).
Villain has Td Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Villain wins $134.60.

kosher · #9 04-29-2007, 04:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He just called in PF so I would say he is very unlikeley to have a big pair (QQ+).

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[ QUOTE ]
Even tho he is loose, I really cant see him limping in with T7...

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[ QUOTE ]
So the way I see it he most likey has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but unless you can see his cards he doesnt

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I could min raise him back and if he comes over the top I can be pretty sure hes got a set??

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate on your answers a little more please.

Das Budrick · #10 04-29-2007, 04:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay well thanks for the replies. FWIW i think you are all right - you cant lay this down. Even tho I did think he was on a set I raised him all in anyway with the exact thinking you guys have. "You cant lay down a set at NL50". My question is now this:

Even tho I thought he had a set - do I still put him all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was already addressed thoroughly in the thread. The answer is yes, either on the flop or the turn.