bet this river?

[jt1]

Villain is LP before and LAG after. For the record, this isn't a results oriented question.

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,

[jstill]

definitely bet EZ money and it doesnt even matter what u do thereafter i dont think becuz u ll so rarely be cr'd as 3x or two pair with a 2 is highly unlikely given the action.

[jt1]

3x is very likely....Will the LAG villain call this river often enough to risk the c/r?

[Carmine]

I don't bet it unless I can answer all the important questions about my opponent.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't bet it unless I can answer all the important questions about my opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling a raise because he did something bold a few orbits ago. That's all I got.

[jstill]

weak pair hands are still much more of his donking range here, particularly when its considered how few 3x hands BB will defend here HU (questionable) and donk the flop with but not the river.

I think this is an easy river cr with 33 or A3 for villain (those are my only 3x hands here for me probably vs some stealers maybe K3s or something) since uve made it clear ur hand is Tx or an overpair or set but most villains think " I made straight, he mite check with the one card straight out, I bet" which is often true but not here, but I think villains will mess this up enough where once he checks u can go to value town.

fwiw all his worse pairs that call the turn raise are showdown bound nearly 100% of the time, so villain will call very often with a worse hand here. I also happen to think u can bet fold but even if u bet call I think thats +EV.