NL 100 - Interesting hand, I call a 3-bet Aces OOP and a king flops

[YKMM]

Comments on my play appreciated. I occasionally mix up my preflop play with a 4-bet and a call. Villain is 22/8/2.0 in 30 hands so the no strong reads. On the flop, his range is likely to be AA, AK, KK and I think my turn play leaves much to be desired.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($100)
CO ($38.85)
Button ($75)
SB ($95.75)
BB ($136.90)
Hero ($100)
UTG+1 ($96.50)
MP1 ($40.40)
MP2 ($106.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($25.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, UTG+1 calls $18.

Turn: ($61.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $66.5</font>, Hero calls $34.50.

[bottomset]

you aren't folding, if he has KK so be it

[Sigurd]

I feel like doing some math, someone please check if I'm messing up..

According to your read, he could have the following on the flop: AA, KK, AK. However, he won't have KK as often as he will have AK.

AK:6
KK:3
AA:1

We don't really know if he could be doing this with AK. Maybe he will do it sometimes, and maybe he won't, we can't really know. The worst case scenario, is that he will only make this play with AA and KK.

AA will give us a split pot. Since there are a lot of money in the pot, we will actually be winning 62$ (193$/2-34.5$).

When we are up against KK, we will lose 25.5$ (we outdraw him 4.5% of the time, which means that we lose 34.5$-200$*0.045). This happens three times as often, as we split with AA, so we will lose 76.5$.

EV against KK: -25.5$ * 3 = -76.5$
EV against AA: 62$ * 1 = 62$
Net EV = 62$-76.5$ = -14.5$

This means, that we have to be very certain that his range is KK and AA if we are to fold our hand here i.e. we should call.

EDIT: Fixed so there 3 KK combinations.

[bottomset]

3 KK combos

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[fxrenegade]

Looks alright to me actually. Does the Villain reraises with AK?

[DougieG]

I agree with bottom. I stack off here willingly.

[jack frost]

You really aren't sure if you should call another 34$ into like a 155$ pot??? Heck yea call every time. Even if you think check calling would be better you will just end up calling AI on the river any way.

[Jurrr]

Standard.