Hypothetical Hand - Crappy Draw to SB C/R

[Unarmed]

5/10 - 100bb stacks
Raise 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Button, SB calls.
Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], ($70)
SB C/R's 50 c-bet to 150.

He doesn't do this without a FD, set, or two-pair.
He will fire two more shells with his full range if the flush misses.
I'm not sure how he'll react if the flush hits the turn or river.
Is this an auto-call? Is it a call if he reraises KQ pre?

[good2cu]

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Is it a call if he reraises KQ pre?

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def a fold is we know he cant have KQ or one pair hands. It's probaly a fold if he has the extact range you gave him but I dunno how we can put him on this range.

Also this isnt a terrible spot for a flop check behind.

[BobboFitos]

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Is it a call if he reraises KQ pre?

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def a fold is we know he cant have KQ or one pair hands. It's probaly a fold if he has the extact range you gave him but I dunno how we can put him on this range.

Also this isnt a terrible spot for a flop check behind.

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i beg to differ, i think checking this flop w/ this hand is real awful

if you had like 43o, then you could argue c/f, but it looks like we dont get checkraised much, good 1 pairs check call, bad 1 pairs check fold, and we define his hand range and still get ok odds w/ position when he has 2pair+ or big draw. seems like a perfect bet spot.

[RiverHebrew2]

Well, if he doesn't do this without FD, set or two pair, I guess you won't get paid if you hit ur flush unless ur beat, and you're going to face lots of heat on turn, so i guess this is clear cut fold based on your reads.

[BobboFitos]

i guess you made it 30 pf, a bit on the small side, for a 70 pot on the flop.

also, you dont say how much he fires on the turn, but if he raised 100 more on the flop, (into 170) his bet sizing is on the small side. for purpose of this breakdown, he'll bet slightly less then 2/3 pot on the turn, which if you call, is 370. so he'll bet 225 with effective ~600 more behind and if called sets up a ~820 pot for the river.

on the flop you have some reverse equity, making this not a clear pot odds situation. for one, he's checkraising *all* flush draws, all of which have you dead (no lower flush possibles!) and for two, both KQ and 55 have redraw equity.

one small note, is if this is his range with that accuracy, i think you could play fancy and call and push a blank if they didnt price themselves in with a flush draw, or call again and bluff blank rivers all in bc a huge % of their range is like ace high or 9 high etc. but thats a different hypothetical world.

here, we're laid 100:370 for just the turn for ~9 outs (5 is likely dirty, too...) we are putting roughly 27% equity into the pot where best case scenario we only have ~19% equity on the turn card. once you compound it with sometimes calling, hitting, and being dead, or calling, hitting, and being outdrawn, it means this is a pretty bad call.

if you can polarize his range though, it's worth considering moving all in on the flop. unless he wont lay down like A5h and stuff. (with only a small amount of dead money some will, who knows, i would never fold a nut flush draw but i am a gambler i suppose) bc if you think he'll fold frush draws on the flop, there are roughly (depending how loose oop he is, like if he calls 75s oop, 96s, etc.) anywhere from 30 to 40 reasonable combos of FD hands (some "should" call an all in anyway, like AJh and ATh and JTh are HUGE, but maybe he reraises Aj/At, for this demonstration they fold) and if his range is like KQs (3 combos) and 55 (3 combos) you fold out ~85% his range, and when called, still have ~28% equity. without doing an ev calc thats def +EV.

obv if he has air that folds that helps you, if he calls with any fd (like pair plus draw, over plus draw, gut plus draw, etc.) then this quickly becomes burning money.