Did I mess up this AKs?

[voxx]

I'm new to NL after playing only Limit for a few years.
I often find I have no idea what my opponent has.

The villian is in the BB and I only have a total of 27 hands on him so no read.

Is this a standard way to play this hand?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 10 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $36.96
BB: $25
UTG: $6.75
<font color="black">Hero (UTG+1): $37.85</font>
UTG+2: $58.45
MP1: $7.95
MP2: $22
MP3: $25.60
CO: $4.50
BTN: $18.50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K A (10 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, 7 folds, BB calls $0.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2.10) 4 9 K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($5.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $6

<font color="black">River:</font> ($25.10) 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Pot Size: $25.10 ($1.25 Rake)

I'll post the result later.

[hoyasaxa]

google "baluga theorem." Basically, getting checkraised on the turn means that one pair hands are beat. everything is fine until the turn.

[poon]

looks fine

[Jaqrabbit]

I might have bet a bit higher on the flop - maybe bet the whole pot. Otherwise, it looks good to me.

As to knowing what's in his hand, I'm a little puzzled myself. I initially thought pocket pair (88 or TT maybe) from the calls, but the c/r on the turn and check on the river are a little confusing. TJ would make a straight on the turn, but then why not bet on the river? If he caught a set, same deal. I don't see a check-raise on the river working out (and clearly if that was his plan, you didn't bite). If we assume the turn raise is a bluff (or at least semi-bluff), the rest makes sense and I'd say probably a pair with a straight draw (or maybe just the draw).

Or he could be on KQ, with 2 pair on the turn, but I just don't see a check-raise there. Absent a read on the guy, it's hard to say with any confidence.

Edit to reply to the point about the Baluga Theorem. The examples given in that link deal with BIG turn raises - in both cases the raiser is all-in. That's not the case here. It's $6 to call, with 3-to-1 odds on the call. I think the smart play here is call the turn raise and then either check behind on the river or fold if he pushes. The more I think about it, the more I think he's got a pair with a gutshot (say 9T or 9J) and TPTK is the winner.

[.KeviN.]

yea looks like the baluga theorem to me, except his river check is really weird. I dunno about this opponent, but theres a small chance you might be good. Im not betting the river, but still Im trying to think what he has. I doubt hes going for a c/r w JT, most likely he has Q9s or maybe KQ, doubt hes checking a set (maybe 4s?) so this could also be KJ, or QJ or some pair that he caught a str8 draw with on the turn. Reads would make this so much easier....Im gunna guess hes an idiot and had QJ or KJ.

P.S. either way baluga theorem says standard to fold turn

[voxx]

I'd not heard off the Baluga Theorem. Thanks for that.

Looking at the hand now I can see how so many hands beat me after the turn card. The call at that point was probably bad. His check on the river really confused me but there was no way I was going to bet.

[Sweir]

I probably play it the same. If he raised more on the turn then I could find a fold.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. either way baluga theorem says standard to fold turn

[/ QUOTE ]

If you haven't already, please take a look at the bit about this on the end of my previous post. And keep in mind, baluga suggests a "strong re-evaluation" of 1 pair hands facing a raise on the turn, not a guaranteed fold. My evaluation leads me to call and see how the river plays.

Incidentally, I agree about not betting the river. No sense letting him check-raise you a second time running, if that's what he's planning. Also, I really want to see his cards at this point, so the check looks pretty good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[voxx]

Ok. I'm off to work soon so here are the results:

BB had T 7 (high card King) and LOST (-$12.50)
Hero had K A (a pair of Kings) and WON (+$11.35)

I have to say that I was surprised but pleased to see what he had.

[JNuey]

I agree w/the baluga theorem here, BUT. I think this board is dry enough that it's ok to call turn since the raise was pretty weak. I think you played it pretty well.