more luck than others

[bacats32]

Do you think that some people are just luckier than others. What I mean is, there may be some who when a 4 to 1 dog may hit that draw more often than others. Or there may be some people who lose when ahead more often than others. It is like a balancing act. There are those who are extra unlucky and those who are extra lucky.

[bacats32]

I feel I am one on the unlucky types. I seem to always run into the donks and they outdraw me with horrible calls. Or if I do go on a draw when I have the odds in my favor I don't hit. Another good scenario, last night in cash game I was in 4 guys I never seen before sit in. Huge donks. Calling big raises all in 10 or more times the blind, with 89 off or a weak A. I was card dead and waiting for my time to capitalize and of course when I have big pair and what does he wake up with. A bigger pair.

[Gigglegirl]

The more hands you play, the more likely bad luck and good luck even out.
The cards do not care who wins and they have no memory.
Luck is involved but statistically the impact of +/- luck diminishes in direct relation to the amount of hands played.

So the short answer is;
Yes players can be 'lucky' over the short term but not over the longer term.

[llleisure]

In theory luck *should* balance out but it may not. Also, someone's perception of whether they're generally lucky or not may affect their play and thus affect their outcome.

Here's a quote from Doyle's Room (I think from Doyle himself) about luck:

http://www.doylesroom.com/education/...ts.cfm?page=26

[ QUOTE ]

1. The cards probably won't break even--not in gin rummy, not in poker, and not in real life. There's a common misconception that if you play poker long enough the cards will break even. Fat chance! Maybe, if you could play forever, never stopping, never sleeping, eventually you'd break even on luck. But not in just one lifetime! Early on you'd probably break even on, say, the number of full houses you were dealt, but it would take much longer to break even on circumstances surrounding those full houses.




You might lose more hands than you should lose on average. On the other hand, sometimes opponents might have nothing to oppose you with, and you'll win nothing. You might get many full houses when you're sitting in big-limit games, or you may receive most in smaller games. You might be against weak opponents, you might not. On and on. And the more factors you consider, the broader the range of luck, and the longer it will take for you to break even.




Does this mean some people are luckier than others for their lifetimes? You bet! But there's good news. You can still win, year after year, in gambling games requiring skill, even if you're not lucky. How? Simply by making the best decisions again and again without fail. Then, instead of being a break-even big-money player who may win $100,000 one year and lose $100,000 the next, you might win $250,000 in a lucky year and win $50,000 in an unlucky year. In this over-simplified example, the $200,000 swing from lucky year to unlucky year isn't enough to cause you to lose. At seminars, I teach that you should go to the poker table day after day on a simple mission. That mission is to make the best decisions always, and never worry about whether you're lucky or unlucky. You can't control your luck, but you can control your decisions.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Vang]

[ QUOTE ]
In theory luck *should* balance out but it may not.

[/ QUOTE ]Sounds like someone doesn't quite comprehend the concept of infinity.

[jogsxyz]

It never breaks even. Skill is linearly proportional to time. Luck is linearly proportional to the square root of time. If you play long enough and don't go broke, eventually skill plays a bigger part on your results than luck.
Of course, that assumes you are correct that you are skillful enough to actually be a favorite to win.

[ocdscale]

"Luck" doesn't balance out.

Suppose I flip a fair coin a thousand times. You'd expect on average 500 heads and 500 tails.
What if I told you that a month ago, I flipped this coin a thousand times and it came up 450 heads and 550 tails, would you then say "Oh, well in that case, things should balance out. It'll should come up 550 heads and 450 tails this time"

No such thing as luck, there's just variance, and variance has no memory.

[PJo336]

I believe in Karma, which is different for different people. But that can be changed throughout our life. Luck is real, but obviously only in the short run.
Ex: Jaime Gold?

[eigenvalue]

I don't believe in fate, I believe in maths only. And this will make me a better poker player!

[PantsOnFire]

I look at it this way.

If you always get it in with the best of it, you will never be lucky. This is because you are always in the lead so when you win, it is expected, and when you lose, it is unlucky.

Now on the other hand, if you are a bad player and always get it in with the worst of it, when you lose it is expected, and when you win, it is lucky.

So you can see how the bad player can appear lucky and the good player unlucky.

And even when the good player does get it in with the worst of it, you have to look at the odds. For example, as a big stack in a tourney, I will call small stacks all-in when I know I am behind. If I have KQ and I'm getting 2:1 odds, I will call a player if I feel he has A rag. I'll be a 3:2 dog but I'm getting 2:1 pot odds. And it's even better if he has a small pair.

When I win those showdowns against the card odds, I might be viewed as being lucky but it's really just a good poker decision. So when some people look at results and decide it was a lucky outcome, they might not be seeing the big picture.