Live 1/2 hand-OESD on flop in raised pot-should I call 2/3 pot bet

[agent_fish]

The villian in this hand is a decent, solid player from what I can tell. The only other significant hand I've played against him was early in the session. Here it is:

Stacks are $200.

I'm dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. A few players limp to me. I raise to $16. Villain calls in EP. Another limper in LP calls.

I flop top set on ragged board. I bet $15. Villain calls. Limper folds.

Turn is a 9. I check. Villain bets $30. I raise all-in. I know this was a huge overbet and a mistake. I'm not super-experienced at NL. Feel free to berate me. After the hand he says he only had a nine, which means he might've been floating me. Whatever.

Anyways, that's the only other hand I can remember against him or including him.



On to the hand in question.

My stack is $550 after flopping a set and stacking a very poor player who had AA. Old man's is $300-400ish. Villain's is $250.

I call in MP behind one limper with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Kinda loose old man nit raises to $15. Villain from previous hand calls on the button. It's folded back to me and I call.

Flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. Old man nit checks. Villain bets $30.
Should I call?

Also, I'm basicaly planning to lead out if any heart drops including the 8 or 2. Might this be a good idea?

Comments on all streets welcome, or either hand for that matter.

[whorasaurus]

I think this is a fold. you are OOP, and have a mediocre draw. Your implied odds are terrible, since of your 8 outs, 2 of them are hearts and will either get people to shut down, or have somebody kill you with their flush. Additionally, the 3 is a bad out too, b/c top pair is likely going to slow down on that kind of board. I think its probable that someone has an ace, but players are generally bad at this level, and bad players don't fold. So with that in mind, i recommend against bluffing if a random heart falls.

raising to 100 is a potential way to play it though...

[agent_fish]

Basically, my real question goes like this:

In limit it is easy to quantify what I can win. I just count the pot and maybe add a bet or two for implied odds. Then I calculate my chances of winning by taking my number of outs x 2 (roughly) to get the chances of making my hand with one card.

So in this case I have 6 clean outs to the nuts and 2 dirty outs that also make a flush. So I would give myself 6.5-7? outs. So I need to be getting almost 7 or 8 to 1 in order to make calling this a profitable play. I would pretty much have to stack him every time without ever getting stacked.

I think I've realized on my own that calling here (especially OOP) is a losing play. Of course, I think I knew it already.

I guess I just need some tips on how to play medium strength draws like lone little flush draws and little OESDs on the flop. And especially in pots that have been raised preflop.

[Georgia Avenue]

This is a tough question and a tough spot in general that I get into often. I usually fold this because 1. The nit might be slowplaying AA and raise you off the draw, wasting your flop call. 2. The decent player might be betting a flush-draw while repping the Ace. 3. What whosauras said about the 3 being a scare card.

It's just not a good spot to play for stacks ESPECIALLY since you're OOP. You'll often win just the current pot on the turn or river if you hit, and if you miss you'll be bluffing into god knows what.

Now if you're a very tight player, (which I ain't) you could call this and lead a heart/jackpot turn. But really, even decent players won't fold twopair or bottom set live for a PSB on the turn so you'll have to checkraise or double barrel. Either way thats a lotta money going in.

So yeah, I dunno. Not an easy question. Makes it easier if you raise this coming in like I do. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]