50NL Bluffed turned into a hand, bet river for value?

[HANABI]

This 30/15 villain gives me WAY too much credit so I tried to bluff him out here and was planning to shut down if called. Lets talk about the river. I’m interested to know how you guys like my river value bet. I had mixed feelings about it since after he called the flop he must’ve been really strong but checking this river seems weak to me. Also he never raises this river, if he had the flush he’d always bet the turn and call river with 2 pair or a set.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<u>HANABI (SB): $187.05</u>
BB: $20.95
UTG: $49.50
<u>MP: $60.35</u>
<font color="black">CO: $8.50</font>
BTN: $56

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> HANABI is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.50</font>, CO calls $1.50, BTN folds, HANABI calls $1.25, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
HANABI checks, <font color="red">MP bets $2</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">HANABI raises to $9.50</font>, MP calls $7.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($24) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
HANABI checks, MP checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($24) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">HANABI bets $14.50</font>

[Nick C]

Since Villain usually gives you credit but called a big flop checkraise this time, yeah, that means he's probably strong, but for a lot of his strong hands, that strength vanishes once that ace hits. I mean, KK-99 are much more likely mathematically than a set. If you think he'd bet the turn with a flush, then it seems like you don't really have that much to worry about on the river (although you will of course sometimes lose to a set that fears a tricky turn whiffed checkraise from a flush), and the value bet seems fine. I mean, we know Villain didn't call you on the flop with an ace-high flush draw once that turn card hits, and it doesn't sound like he would have called you with just ace-high.

By the way, since Villain could have a PP that contains a spade, I'm thinking a turn bet might be better than a check.

[.xxxx.]

Looks good as played, and it works only because villain checked behind on the turn. If he had bet 2/3 pot &gt; x &gt; pot on the turn you would have been in heaps of trouble given your flop line.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks good as played, and it works only because villain checked behind on the turn. If he had bet 2/3 pot &gt; x &gt; pot on the turn you would have been in heaps of trouble given your flop line.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree