General River Concept Question

[Lunar Tweak]

i find myself in this situation mostly when i'm in the blinds and out of position on the river. here's a hypothetical hand to illustrate my dilemma.

Hero has KQJT and the board on the turn is 4 9 8 T. Hero bets and gets 3 callers. River pairs the 4. Should Hero bet, or check/call(or even fold)?

does the answer change if:
the river pairs the T?
Hero get's more or less callers on the turn?
there's a low possible?

My thoughts so far are that you should bet if you can fold to a raise, meaning no low possible so only a Full House will raise you. otherwise check/calling is probably the way to go, but i'm not certain.

also, anything else to consider when this happens on the turn? maybe simply check/folding more often since the pot will be small and not usually worth pursuing?

thanks in advance

[Colonel Ingus]

I assume you are playing O8, and not PLO, since you don't mention the sizes of the bets and stacks. Given than, I would also assume that the flop was checked around. On a flop of 498, that would be highly unusual in most games I've played. If there was a bet on the flop, I would immediately toss my hand in the muck, since there are two low cards on the board and you don't have enough equity to continue.

Okay so you get lucky and see a free turn which gives you the current nut hi. You bet out and get three callers, one, two, or all three of whom most likely has A2xx, or even A3xx. Since there was no flop bet, the xx have to be absolute trash, or the players are weak-tight. A 67xx might call here, as would a 7Txx, and a QJxx. You would expect a push on the flop from A2 or A3 plus a set, two pair, straight draw, flush draw, or even 1 pair plus some additional wheel cards, or high cards. You might even see a push on the flop from a hand like 99HH. So we've ruled out the above hands with some safety given flop actions.

Now on the turn, you would definitely expect a raise by someone with a hand like A2TT. You may or may not see a raise by someone with low draw + T4, T8, or T9. If the villain is normally agg on the turn, I would rule these out if they just call. If not, I would have to proceed with caution.

On the river, there are about 6BB in the pot given your situation. The real question here is whether to bet and fold to a raise, or check/call. The primary determining factor of whether or not to bet/fold, or check/call, is pot size. I think check/folding is too weak as you would have 7 to 1 odds for a likely scoop. If you bet out, all the low draws without much else will fold. Hands that you have beat that might call are someone who has the same hand as you (JQxx), trips, two understraights, and even AAxx. We've ruled out most of the hands that have you beat, unless your opponents have been playing tricky. So the only hand you would really be worried about a boat someone backed into. Having said that, I have been raised on the river in these situations, and I don't mind throwing my hand away since the pot is small. If the pot were larger, you definitely want to show down your hand, so I would lean towards check/calling.

On a final note, if you have reads on your opponents, the correct play may be something entirely different.

Just my two cents. I could be completely wrong. Hope it helps.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
i find myself in this situation mostly when i'm in the blinds and out of position on the river. here's a hypothetical hand to illustrate my dilemma.

Hero has KQJT and the board on the turn is 4 9 8 T. Hero bets and gets 3 callers. River pairs the 4. Should Hero bet, or check/call(or even fold)?

does the answer change if:
the river pairs the T?
Hero get's more or less callers on the turn?
there's a low possible?

My thoughts so far are that you should bet if you can fold to a raise, meaning no low possible so only a Full House will raise you. otherwise check/calling is probably the way to go, but i'm not certain.

also, anything else to consider when this happens on the turn? maybe simply check/folding more often since the pot will be small and not usually worth pursuing?

thanks in advance

[/ QUOTE ]

Over the long run you'll find betting a paired board on the river has more value then checking. In this instance you can get paid off by a lot of hands that are going to call your bet but would check it down if given the option, such as 6-7, J-7 as well as trips 4's and all the low hands that are out. You'll doubt this situation when you get raised and someone turns over a full house, but the times you get paid off are far more valuable than the times when you bet and get raised, and don't fall intoa habit of this, but- you'll be able to fold to a river raise once in a while and not lose sleep over it against specific players. Also keep in mind that some players are often drawing to a low only hand, and if the flop comes 3-6-9 turn 8 river 8, those low hands are going to call your river bet as well.


Bet.

[Buzz]

Tweak - I can't tell you exactly what to what to do on the river here, except that you should definitely not fold.

Why not? Because you're the favorite and this is a standard Omaha-8 bluffing position for your opponents.

After this flop (presumably 498) it's hard to tell what hands your opponents who have seen the flop and turn are playing. Could be everyone has a low draw. Could be someone has a straight draw similar to your own. Could be somebody has a set or two pairs. Could be some combination of these.

If we simulate this on the river against three random hands, Hero wins about 63%. Of course your opponents don't exactly have random hands here - but they're more likely to see the flop with either low cards or high cards. Eights and nines are not favored cards by seasoned Omaha-8 regulars. Neither are tens. (Fours may go with a couple of other low cards, while tens may go with a couple of other high cards). At any rate, in a real game Hero probably wins more than 63%.

If we simulate this on the river against four opponents with random hands, Hero is still the favorite. We have to get to five opponents with random hands before Hero becomes a slight underdog to a full house or quads. I suspect even with five opponents out of an original eight or nine, those who saw the flop were probably more likely to be those who were dealt cards other than eights or nines for the most part.

I'd suspect that my three opponents here either had the same nut straight as me (except that nobody evidently raised on the river), a lower straight (more likely) or low draws (most likely).

If you bet the river, anybody who missed a low draw will fold. However, somebody with a four, and who thus made trip fours on the river may call, as will somebody with a lower straight.

There also is the possibility that if you bet the river, somebody with the same nut straight as you will fold, fearing a full house. That's not very likely, but I've seen it happen. It's not all that unusual.

All of the above points to betting the river.

However, there is one more consideration. If you have a certain type of opponent, you might consider checking to induce your opponent to try to steal the pot with a bet after you have checked.

There's no way around knowing your opponents.

If they all put you on the straight for your turn bet and will raise with any full house but either fold without a full house or bluff (if they think you might fold your straight to a raise after you have bet) - then you check. If nobody will call your bet, but somebody will try betting a non-nut straight or will try a bluff if you check, then you check.

If somebody without the nuts (a lower straight or trip fours) will check behind you if you check, but will call if you bet, then you bet.

This may at first sound like a wishy-washy answer to you, but if you think about it, maybe you'll learn something. The important thing is to have the proper mind set. The idea is to out-play your opponents. Sometimes you'll out-play them by betting directly. Other times you'll out-play them by checking and letting them bet the hand for you.

Buzz

[Lunar Tweak]

thanks for eveyone's imput. you guys clarified the situation up for me very well.