nl 100 good spot to bluff?

[IsaacAsimov]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $270.35
BB: $100
<u>UTG: $176.80</u>
MP: $233.40
CO: $209.44
<u>Hero (BTN): $123.25</u>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($9.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($21.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14</font>, UTG calls $14

<font color="black">River:</font> ($49.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks

Villain is 16/13/2.7 over 181 hands. I perceive villain as a TAG and a regular. I've been playing 19/16/4 at his table. To me villains line looks a lot like a queen or maybe even 99-tt. After my float failing I feel I can use my intiative to take this down. Any thoughts on a 2/3- 3/4 bet otr?

[sc000t]

I think this is a good spot to bet at. You should be able to get 99/TT/JJ here to fold from this player imo. I think $35-40 would be about right.

I wouldn't be playing this preflop and def wouldn't float this hand here postflop.

[IsaacAsimov]

I believe your reasoning behind folding the flop is villains range UTG and the board texture? If so, I'd have to agree. Though I think preflop is a matter of playing style. The trick is to not over play the J/T imo.

[Rooky]

I think JTsuited in position is ok to play here...being in position is obviously the important factor...but as u said...your postflop ability has to be pretty strong to be able to not over play them.

As played, i agree he has 99-JJ...good spot to have a crack.

[Matt Flynn]

tough for me to respond because i don't know how your opponents handle second barrels after calling the turn.

however, i think this is a rare instance where a pot-sized bluff is better than a two-thirds pot bluff.

[IsaacAsimov]

AQ, KQ plays the same way. Do you guys think I could fold out these hands too, given my image?

@ Matt

Could you pls elaborate on why you think a PSB is better than 2/3 here? Does it have to do with FE against his range of hands?

[Matt Flynn]

yes. 2/3 pot feels weaker. pot says you have a big hand. i'm estimating that villain will call a pot bet sufficiently less often than a 2/3 pot bet that you should pot it. and that's saying a lot coming from me. however, you know your game.