River Question

[rngri4]

A friend and I got into an argument, and I think I am right. Basically with a pair in the hole, he flopped the third card, but there was also a flush draw on the board. On the turn, no help to either the flush draw or his three of a kind, but with the river came the flush. He is arguing, that he had a better chance of getting his last remaining card to make quads on the river, than the person that rivered the flush. I just don't see it, he is arguing that he is waiting on one card, while the person looking for the flush, has up to thirteen cards of that suit, it seems like simple math to me, that there are much better odds of him rivering the flush than his ever getting quads, or for that fact even three of a kind. This friend has refused to talk to me now, and just he is right, any opinions on this one...because it seems like simple math to me, that he is dead wrong.

[Dagaco]

If he has got the hump over something like that then what kind of friend is he? Plus I'm with you.

[AngusThermopyle]

Your friend A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Opponenet K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Turn board A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Your friend has 10 cards ( 3 each deuces, treys, and sevens plus the case Ace) to 'improve' his hand to a full house/quads
His opponent only has 9 remaining hearts to make his flush (and two of those pair the board so he only has 7 cards to win).

[BallinPro]

your friends a donkey and you should never talk to him again

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
your friends a donkey and play as much poker as you can with him

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[rngri4]

I agree 100 percent with you, he has the better chance on the full boat, than the quads. But his whole argument is that he has a better chance on the quads than the flush, which is completely stupid. One card against how many. I agree that he has the better chance with outs at a boat, but other than that, my friend is an idiot, because simple math proves him wrong, but yet he won't listen. His pair was 6's, so they in my opinion are more likely anyway to be mucked with a face card or something else at a 9 man table, so his chances are even less when you think about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Your friend A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Opponenet K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Turn board A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Your friend has 10 cards ( 3 each deuces, treys, and sevens plus the case Ace) to 'improve' his hand to a full house/quads
His opponent only has 9 remaining hearts to make his flush (and two of those pair the board so he only has 7 cards to win).

[/ QUOTE ]

[mikehildebrand]

Let's see 1 card out of 44 can help him, that is like 2.27% of improving. Flush has 9 out of 44 cards, that is 20.45% of improving. JUST based on the quads though, no other hand. However, he needs to get over it. Go buy him a beer and tell him, "You know what, you may be right - draw out on those quads next time, and lets look at it".

[Small Fry]

Based on math the odds for the flush draw are better than the odds strictly for the quads. A more interesting part of this question is what was the betting that was going on. Did he slow play his set with the draw out there giving the opponent the correct odds to call?