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#1
04-23-2007, 12:33 AM
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crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
totals are being abandoned for the moment while i re-work the system for them. i'm looking at incorporating more 5 inning lines, but the lack of overnight availability--mention pinny and die--is a killer. more run lines may also appear.
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#2
04-23-2007, 01:17 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
i'm getting some VERY interesting results on run line calculations, but i'm too tired right now to be sure my work is correct.
4/23: Tam +155 (2) Tex -134 (1) Phi -111 (1) - why does anyone think the astros and sampson are a neutral-field favorite over the phillies and eaton? these are the same books who set the phils' season wins line 10 higher than houston's, right? is the phillies' start really that damning?
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#3
04-23-2007, 01:22 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
LOL at betting teams on coolers. Obviously recent performance with no outside adjustment is the best way to determine a teams true talent level. HYACHACHACHACHA
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#4
04-23-2007, 03:46 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
[ QUOTE ]
is the phillies' start really that damning? [/ QUOTE ] The 2 heartthrobs Utley and Howard are complete garbage right now. That will be the thought of any BSP viewing the team and it's starting to show I guess. Hell, look at how moody Homer has been lately. Coincidence that's his favorite team? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#5
04-23-2007, 09:56 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
i took the royals at +132 on tradesports just now, but i'm not sure this should count as a play because that price is much better than anywhere else. if this line resurfaces and isn't the result of any inside information, it's a 2 unit play.
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#6
04-23-2007, 05:48 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] is the phillies' start really that damning? [/ QUOTE ] The 2 heartthrobs Utley and Howard are complete garbage right now. That will be the thought of any BSP viewing the team and it's starting to show I guess. Hell, look at how moody Homer has been lately. Coincidence that's his favorite team? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I guarantee you the Phightin' Phils make the playoffs. Guaranteed, rock-solid, shoe-in of the year. And when I say 'guarantee,' I mean I'm willing to get very drunk, argue about it for hours, yell 'sample size' over and over, and not wager on it. Guaranteed!
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#7
04-24-2007, 02:18 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
44-43, +50.26
my run line model looks theoretically sound but right now it's showing a consistent bias towards home teams, so i'll re-check everything before putting any money on it. lots of plays today, but i'll chalk that up more to favorable matchups than a poor system. for now, anyway. 4/24: Tex -113 (2) KC +148 (2) Tam +130 (2) Bos +127 (2) Col +189 (1) Phi -185 (1) SF +147 (1)
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#10
04-24-2007, 11:48 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s mlb picks 4/23-4/29 (YTD 42-42, +47.50 u)
[ QUOTE ]
So do you think Tam +149 should be a 3 unit play? [/ QUOTE ] He has already put 3 units on the game at average odds of +136, so +149 is at least a 3-unit play if not 4 (if the edge was 15% before, it's now over 20%). edit -- just to elaborate, supposing he had the Rays at 47% to win, that would make the edge ~11% at +136 and 17% at +149. i'm not sure what he had the true line as before, but the 13-cent move should bump your bet up a unit.
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