$10 - AA on a dangerous board

Dima2000123 · #1 04-21-2007, 04:09 AM

My read: the Villain did the old "I'm thinking, I'm pained for 10 seconds, I guess I call" routine that 80% of the time means at least a set. Should I have checked the turn, and as played, should I have folded?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero (t1740)
UTG+1 (t1520)
MP1 (t2070)
MP2 (t1940)
CO (t1335)
Button (t1635)
SB (t1630)
BB (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t150, 4 folds, Button calls t150, 2 folds.

Flop: (t375) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t300, Button calls t300.

Turn: (t975) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t450, Hero ?

sippin_criss · #2 04-21-2007, 04:13 AM

bet turn and get it all in seriously ffs sdhfksjafhdjksahdfkjsahjkfhsajk $10 sng my frikkin god.

Dima2000123 · #3 04-21-2007, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bet turn and get it all in seriously ffs sdhfksjafhdjksahdfkjsahjkfhsajk $10 sng my frikkin god.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the kind of unhelpful garbage that keeps posters like me off these boards.

PattdownManiac · #4 04-21-2007, 04:38 AM

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in time oriented tells. In my view, the pot is too big to fold. I'd bet something like 750 and call a shove. If he has you beat, the only way you don't get stacked is if you check-fold the turn which I think is too weak and exploitable.

Dima2000123 · #5 04-21-2007, 04:42 AM

How reliable do you think the tell should be (in % terms) for me to give him credit for a full boat and fold?

PattdownManiac · #6 04-21-2007, 04:47 AM

Honestly I would give 0% weight to believing someone has a set because they waited a while to call. If they waited a long time and then raised that is a little more reliable. But is the person multi-tabling? Talking on aim, browsing porn, etc.

Dima2000123 · #7 04-21-2007, 04:53 AM

I got burned a lot more frequently than 0% of the time by knowing that someone flopped the nuts, but being fatalistic Negreanu style and going broke anyway. At $10 level, I'm at least 50% confident that someone flops a monster when they do a long wait, especially when it seems out of character. I also don't expect a lot of LAGs at that level who would float a large bet and pounce at the sight of weakness on the turn, though it's possible (I would).

Jago · #8 04-21-2007, 05:14 AM

Get it in there.

IceMuncher · #9 04-21-2007, 05:31 AM

I wouldn't put too much into the long wait and call. To me it's not that definitive, sometimes they have a big hand, sometimes it's nothing. It's about the same frequency for both as a regularly timed call imo. Now if it was a long pause and then an ai raise or a mini-raise, that sets off alarm bells.

Edit: Also, just nitpicking, but I raise 4x UTG here, just because of our bad position post flop.

Dima2000123 · #10 04-21-2007, 05:41 AM

Setting tells aside, assuming that the player is not a LAG who can make a move with any two cards, what kind of hand could the Villain have here? I'm thinking that the only realistic hands I can beat are 77, TT, and JJ, as well as A6 and A9 if he's a bit of a donkey. I just have a feeling that the Villain is a bit too comfortable on such a scary board.