AK river decision

jt1 · #1 04-20-2007, 09:15 PM

Villain is Loose with moderately aggro stats. I call this if closing the action but what about with CO yet to act?

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (19 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (11.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

joker122 · #2 04-20-2007, 09:25 PM

definitely fold?

MacGuyV · #3 04-20-2007, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
definitely fold?

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jt1 · #4 04-20-2007, 10:10 PM

How about the flop bet?

mediaslut · #5 04-20-2007, 10:13 PM

given how the hand was played you definitely have to call the river. AJ,AT,KJ are likely in the villian's range.

MacGuyV · #6 04-20-2007, 10:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
given how the hand was played you definitely have to call the river. AJ,AT,KJ are likely in the villian's range.

[/ QUOTE ]

goiknvutghn he's betting into 3 players. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Carmine · #7 04-20-2007, 10:21 PM

Jt after the turn action I would have called on the river. Sometimes it is necessary to raise in that spot to get the best hand(CO) to fold. I don't think this is one of them. If CO hand a calling hand he would have bet it on the turn most likely. I also don't think he is overcalling with AK either after you call. It's too easy to put you on TT/JJ in that spot and to call for hopes of a chop is a losing play for him. 9:1 I would fold in that spot as it's probaly a breakeven call at best. 13:1 we should show a profit.

You also say he is somewhat aggressive postflop. Would he C/R Qx on the flop. You say he is loose PF. How many [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hands can we discount here. These answers help sway the dicision in either direction.

Now I have a question for you. 5 seconds before you bet the flop what were you thinking. I ask strickly out of curiousity because that spot sucks.

Carmine · #8 04-20-2007, 10:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
given how the hand was played you definitely have to call the river. AJ,AT,KJ are likely in the villian's range.

[/ QUOTE ]

goiknvutghn he's betting into 3 players. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but how many pots have you picked up by leading a brick turn in SB's spot after a flop gets checked through. Now I realize those situations are usually limped pots and just smaller pot size in general. However with a pot this size this doesn't have to work too often for SB to show a profit here just as your call doesn't have to be correct too often.

Municipal Hare · #9 04-21-2007, 12:16 AM

I'd fold even if last to act. Relying on SB to play unpaired high cards this comically in a multiway capped pot is naive. He's got something.

Nick C · #10 04-21-2007, 01:54 AM

I think it's okay. I would play sheriff and call if I was closing the action.

One problem is that CO may overcall with AK and chop the pot with you even if by some chance you have SB beat.

But, man, I'm going to admit that I'm very tempted to call anyway. I mean, all SB needed to do to still be behind you on the river is (1) make a flop peel with a hand like Ax in a gigantic pot, (2) continue missing on the turn and river, and (3) take a river stab on a "scare" card versus three players who didn't seem to have squat on the turn. And I guess maybe that sounds like a lot, but you are getting 12:1 if CO folds behind you.