2nd nut flush on paired board.... NL50

[oober]

Battled about 10min earlier with my J's set vs his 3's set.
So I figured was more of a blind defense then anything. Villian is 34/10/3.2 over about 300hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
9 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $32.70
BB: $56.80
UTG: $49.80
UTG+1: $27.30
MP1: $17.50
MP2: $50.90
MP3: $22.75
CO: $40.80
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $107.15</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $3

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($10.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3

Thought about reraising, but I didnt want to take lead here. I felt spewing from this guy

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($16.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7

<font color="black">River:</font> ($30.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $20</font>, Hero ??????

Pot Size: $70.25 ($3 Rake)

[bottomset]

I'd raise the flop, you have a monster monster draw

shove river

[KJatl]

Considering he re-raised preflop, AK here is more likely than a boat for the BB I think. Agreed with above, push river.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering he re-raised preflop, AK here is more likely than a boat for the BB I think. Agreed with above, push river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Shoving the river is spew here unless you know he is a donkey and will call with a worse hand since you are going to announce to him that you have at least a flush.

If you push you have to consider not how good your hand is but how good it is if you get called. Since you have effectively told him what you have it's not likely to be that good if you get called.

I know he doesn't have much left behind but consider he bet weak/weak/strong and left himself "pot committed" when your line screams flush draw and it hit on the river.

[bottomset]

its nl50 the players are really bad

with 2Kings and 2Jacks dead, only 5set/quad combos

KJ and KT don't reraise preflop very often, the KQJT of the flush are all gone so Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] reraising hands are rare

still 6combos of AA, and 6combos of AK possible

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
its nl50 the players are really bad

with 2Kings and 2Jacks dead, only 5set/quad combos

KJ and KT don't reraise preflop very often, the KQJT of the flush are all gone so Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] reraising hands are rare

still 6combos of AA, and 6combos of AK possible

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying he doesn't have the best hand. I'm saying I don't think he has the best hand often enough when he gets called even at NL50

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its nl50 the players are really bad

with 2Kings and 2Jacks dead, only 5set/quad combos

KJ and KT don't reraise preflop very often, the KQJT of the flush are all gone so Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] reraising hands are rare

still 6combos of AA, and 6combos of AK possible

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying he doesn't have the best hand. I'm saying I don't think he has the best hand often enough when he gets called even at NL50

[/ QUOTE ]

come on AK never folds, and that is enough to make it a slight valueshove by itself

[KJatl]

After BB bets $20 on the river, he's not folding any decent hand I don't think. Thus, if you think it's OK to call, then you should push. This would be an instacall from AK on the site I play on.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its nl50 the players are really bad

with 2Kings and 2Jacks dead, only 5set/quad combos

KJ and KT don't reraise preflop very often, the KQJT of the flush are all gone so Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] reraising hands are rare

still 6combos of AA, and 6combos of AK possible

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying he doesn't have the best hand. I'm saying I don't think he has the best hand often enough when he gets called even at NL50

[/ QUOTE ]

come on AK never folds, and that is enough to make it a slight valueshove by itself

[/ QUOTE ]
If you post the math I'll belive you, but I'm not convinced you have the best hand often enough when you shove the river.

Also, I don't think AK bets this way.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its nl50 the players are really bad

with 2Kings and 2Jacks dead, only 5set/quad combos

KJ and KT don't reraise preflop very often, the KQJT of the flush are all gone so Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] reraising hands are rare

still 6combos of AA, and 6combos of AK possible

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying he doesn't have the best hand. I'm saying I don't think he has the best hand often enough when he gets called even at NL50

[/ QUOTE ]

come on AK never folds, and that is enough to make it a slight valueshove by itself

[/ QUOTE ]
If you post the math I'll belive you, but I'm not convinced you have the best hand often enough when you shove the river.

Also, I don't think AK bets this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

hands that beat you
KK-1
JJ-1
TT-3
KJ-6
KT-6
K8-6
88-3
A2-A9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-7

Hands you beat
AA-6
AK-6
KQ-6
AQ-12
everything else, albeit nothing seems likely

I doubt he reraises the Ax hands, 88, K8, KT, KJ at all, even TT isn't a sure thing since he's OOP same goes for KQ

if his calling range is AK, TT, JJ, KK you are 6/5 fav to win, shoving is best

I think he shows up with AA, AQ in addition to the above more often than KJ KT type hands