Scenario: Heads Up @ Final Table WSOP Main Event - WHAT DO YOU DO?

[prophet73]

Maybe this question has been posted before (if it has, ignore me), but I was just thinking about it:

Let's say you're heads up at the WSOP ME, playing for $10+ million. 2nd is $5 million. You outlasted a field of 9000 players. You qualified for the ME on FullTiltPoker and will make an additional $10 million with the win.

BTW, ASSUME THAT YOU ARE AN AVERAGE JOE AND $20 MILLION IS A LIFE-CHANGING AMOUNT.

You know your opponent is an amateur who qualified online and plays goofy. But basically you know you are +EV against him.

You have 46 million chips.
Your opponent has 44 million in chips.

Blinds are 150,000 - 300,000 (keep it simple, no antes). Level just started and last 1 hour, 30 minutes.

You are on the small blind and dealt [As Ac].

Opponent raises to 1.5 million on the button.

You re-raise to 4.5 million.

Opponent moves ALL IN.

What do you do?

OK, I know maybe the obvious answer is call, but I raise this question because you have around 140 BBs left and you know you are +EV on the opponent. You may tell me there isn't a better spot than here, but you are playing for a once-in-a-lifetime situation, $15 million difference (maybe more based on sponsorships, etc).

So I thought that you might throw out the idea of always making correct long-run decisions because there isn't likely another situation like this to come up every again.

I almost think that I would rather give this spot up just play small pots and chip at him knowing I can beat him and find an even BETTER spot (with more than TWO out of SEVEN cards of my hand out) instead of risking your once-in-a-lifetime moment.

OK, so maybe he has an underpair like KK. Around 18% of the time you are going to get sucked out on. EIGHTEEN percent for a situation for $15 million. That seems like a lot to me.

Maybe he has AA. Risking your tournament life on a chop?

Maybe he has AK. Best case scenario, but he is still going to win it nearly 12% of the time if he is suited.

Thoughts?

[Fireball_AA]

you are probably not 5 times better than him putting you ona better spot than with Aces.

[Poisoned]

my thought is anyone who wont call AI with AA here wont make it past day 1

edit: like you

[themobfather]

omg

[prophet73]

But with 140 BBs and knowing you are an obvious +EV against him, don't you think that you have enough play to wait for an even better spot with $15 million at risk?

[Scooterdoo]

If you're playing against this monkey, fold. Otherwise call.

- S

[themobfather]

no

[prophet73]

[ QUOTE ]
my thought is anyone who wont call AI with AA here wont make it past day 1

edit: like you

[/ QUOTE ]

Well notice how it's a SCENARIO. That means that I probably wouldn't fold AA in almost any other spot, but I'm talking about HEADS UP for $15 MILLION difference.

I remember an interview asking Phil Ivey about having KK (or maybe AA) in the BB on the first hand of the ME and all 9 players before him go all-in if he would call and he said that's a tough decision. He said he wasn't sure.

You're telling me this isn't just as tough of a decision? It's an insta-call?

[prophet73]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing against this monkey, fold. Otherwise call.

- S

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so you're saying 140 BBs isn't enough to wait? What if you had 200+ BBs left?

[themobfather]

look at the odds of KK winning against 8 opponents
then look at odds of winning AA against 1 opponent

no its not a tough decision. yes its an instacall