$5R Turbo WSOP Sat - call with KK on bubble?

[kindling]

Sat pays 13, 15 left (2 tables). Everyone still left gets at least $33 rebate, and 13 get $160 seat.

At least 1 player is AI on other table. Here, SB is AI (converter seems to drop him), and I just posted the BB for more than 1/2 my stack. Villain has just pushed on previous hand and collected the Blinds and Antes (big chunk at this point). Antes are 1000, about to go to 1500, and blinds are 10k/20k. This thing is ending very soon.


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t7752/t20000
(Ante: t1000)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t9280
UTG+1: t38062
MP1: t112197
MP2: t4154
CO: t4042
Button: t35980
SB: t8752
Hero: t39540

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises all-in t111197</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????</font>.


Arguments for fold:
1. Villain may take out SB on his own.
2. If I survive SB, I should still be able to fold around to a seat (lots of shorties on my table).

Arguments for call:
1. KK, OMG!
2. Villain is likely pushing light, knowing that very few should be calling. SB has a random hand.
3. I'll have 7k after SB passes, and antes will eat me up soon. Of course, no one has many hands left.
4. If I call, I can help knock out another short stack.
5. Even if I lose to Villain but beat SB, I may still win the seat because I have more chips.

Thanks,
Kindling

[kindling]

I forgot another scenario: I lose to SB, but beat Villain. I should be crushing his range, and our side pot would make me a chip leader, and could easily fold into seat.

[dcviperboy]

should be an easy fold.

1) There is someone all in at the other table
2) SB is all in. If you fold, you will still have enough to cover small blind + 3 antes or so
3) UTG will be all in next hand
4) CO and MP2 have less than 5 hands each until they are forced all in
5) UTG + 1 will have 1/2 his stack in in 2 more hands and might do something stupid.


All these tings combined, in short you have 8 more hands (39.5k-21-11-1-1-1-1-1.5-1.5) after this one. In 8 more handsyou will be BB again, butu 5 out of 8 people at your table would have been all in again. This includes UTG, MP2, CO, Button, and SB (again). This does not even take into account the other table.

Chance are...someone will lose.

Fold

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
should be an easy fold.

1) There is someone all in at the other table
2) SB is all in. If you fold, you will still have enough to cover small blind + 3 antes or so
3) UTG will be all in next hand
4) CO and MP2 have less than 5 hands each until they are forced all in
5) UTG + 1 will have 1/2 his stack in in 2 more hands and might do something stupid.


All these tings combined, in short you have 8 more hands (39.5k-21-11-1-1-1-1-1.5-1.5) after this one. In 8 more handsyou will be BB again, butu 5 out of 8 people at your table would have been all in again. This includes UTG, MP2, CO, Button, and SB (again). This does not even take into account the other table.

Chance are...someone will lose.

Fold

[/ QUOTE ]

yes very easy fold. I would call if you were going to be allin on your SB on the next hand. Given that you have another full orbit before you are blinded out, I am folding KK and even AA here.

[Village Idiot]

Fold and it's not even close.
Once you get through the SB folding you are only paying the 1500 ante.
You will easily fold in due to all of the short stacks that will have to cyccle through the blinds before they get back to you.

[whynot?]

you can easily fold into a seat now most likely

i like to think of it this way

if you fold what are you're chances of getting a seat? I'd say 90%+

If you call and win you're almost 100% guaranteed but what are youre chances of winning? 80% at best, most likely 70% if someone has an ace.

Easy fold

[kindling]

Sounds like I need to pay closer attention to the shorties and other tables, and stop falling in love with my cards.

FYI - I called. Villain had Q5s, SB had 66, and KK held up. This was the last hand of the tourney, so I realized after the fact that I was taking an unnecessary risk. Turned out OK, but Villain could easily have had AA, or gotten lucky on the flop.

I'm getting better at recognizing when I don't need to gamble, but I couldn't lay down KK here. Everybody seems to agree that I should have.

Thanks for the input.

[loosemmjan]

I have a question about this toureny.

How many runners?

How long do these turbos take?

How many rebuys, for you, on average?

thanks

[kindling]

The number of runners varies a lot. I've seen some running with as many as 200+, and some with less than 60. It depends on time of day, day of week, etc.

All of the WSOP turbo sats take almost exactly 90 minutes. The blind structure guarantees it.

I have been trying to keep my total buyins down to 3-5, since it's a satellite. That's an initial rebuy, and always taking the add-on. I hope for a chance to double up during the rebuy period, but it hasn't been worth it to take too many chances. So many people bust out during the rebuy period, that it makes sense to at least survive it. If I have to rebuy, I double-rebuy immediately. I've had tourneys with 10 rebuys, but I'm trying to stop doing that!

Regards,
Kindling