Draw played strong

[nichtsnutz]

Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, Hero calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7BB, 4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

I had a ton of outs but most of them weren't clean. Do people agree that this double-checkraise has the potential to fold a lot of AK, AJ, KQ, K7 type hands? Also lone Jacks might call one on the flop potentially costing me half the pot?

Expert or spew? Discuss!

[BigBadBabar]

total spew

[fretelöo]

Spew.

You don't fold a pair and this board is likely to have given at least one of them something, probably even TP.

I'm not convinced I like your hand to begin with: your J outs are probably pretty much dead because there's a decent chance someone's got an 8. So you have probably closer to two outs for your OCs, 1.5 for your BDFD and a GS. That's enough for a peel.

C/r'ing oop doesn't really do anything you want. It may fold ace-high. However, as of yet, you had half a SB invested. That c/r will only ever work if you bet the turn again (c/r'ing again makes no sense at all - vills don't fold to screw lines) and that would be a costly 2BB bluff that's nowhere near certain to work...

[nichtsnutz]

You do realize I have a double gutshot? An 8 doesn't give me the nuts but pretty close. I'll do some math and see if I can convice you.

[Neku]

Hmm, difficult situation.

You have a double belly buster, but:
- any player with an 8 is playing a strong 8 out SD (88? J8? T8? 98? sounds like cards ppl will play at this level)
- any player with QJ: likewise (danger of forfeiting your K)
- and then there's the players with Jx who just don't have a clue about inside draws...

The danger of having to split your pot is quite real. Only the Q would give you a really strong hand. On the turn, there's still 4 players! What could they have to call your checkraise on the flop?

Danger everywhere. I think the turn raise is a bit spewy.

[Zeldark]

It'd be cooler if the board had 2 spades also.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
You do realize I have a double gutshot? An 8 doesn't give me the nuts but pretty close. I'll do some math and see if I can convice you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I do. It's just that a c/r never accomplishes what you want (fold a pair - because someone's GOT a pair and with your draw, you'd like ace-high to stay and pad the pot).

[nichtsnutz]

Ok, I'll give it a try. I'm pretty sure the raise on the flop is good but I may well be wrong on the turn.

On the flop I have the following outs:

Card | Worth
8 | 2.5 (I will often chop or lose to QJ)
Q | 4 (nuts)
J | 0.5 (lose to any 8 and J7, J8, JT, AJ)
K | 1.5 (could lose to QJ, Kx, other two pair)
Spades | 1 (almost nuts)

= 9.5 outs which is something like 36.5% equity

I'm obv never folding. This extra raise-SB would have to increase my equity in this 8 SB pot (after I "called") by 12.5% to be profitable. For 49% equity I need 13.5 outs. Does nobody think I can get enough one-pair and gutshot hands to fold?

On the turn the raise would have to gain me 5 outs which is going to be really hard.

[nichtsnutz]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first post read like you were thinking about folding it.

[FatedEquity]

Flop c/r is good. I also raise this pf.


On the turn, if CO was an overaggressive monkey, then this play is actually quite fine: pair hands sandwiched in-between just might fold the turn facing two cold, and you will have accomplished the dual goal of isolating yourself against a player with a wide range and pressuring better hands to fold giving you greater chances to win the pot. But absent of such a read, I much prefer a check-call.