2/4 Bellagio vs. Liz

[Ian J]

Hi,

Really bad 2/4 that started recently Liz isn't playing as crazy as everyone believes she always does. I actually think she plays ok. Anyway, on to the hand.

John Myung limps UTG 7 handed. He's pretty good and I don't know what this means but I have JJ in CO so I'm raising it up. Liz calls in the blind and John calls.

Flop 953 rainbow check to me I bet Liz c/r's, John calls and I 3 bet it they both call. Turn 7 Liz c/r me again and I call John folded to c/r. River 5 Liz bets I raise and she 3 bets. Can I ever win?

[Schneids]

I don't think so. Whenever I've played against her online I've found her to be very tight and straight forward.

[Cornell Fiji]

I don't play these stakes and I do not know how Liz plays so this post is not going to help you but I would appreciate it if someone could explain these questions for the benefit of those who are not yet at this level.

Is your river raise even close to standard after getting cred twice in a 3 handed pot?

What range did you put her on going into the river? It seems that 67s is the only hand that you beat, how often is she calling your river raise with 67s after all of the strength that you have shown without even a flush draw on the board? I can't imagine that she is cring the flop and turn with A9 is she?

I would fold to her river 3 bet but given my experience my advice is pretty much worthless.

-Steve

[vincevegas]

I have seen her raise flops and turns, but never rivers and especially not 3 betting the river when its obvious you have a hand and she cant possibly believe you are folding, you are beat, ditch it.....

I know we will difer on how to play this hand, but simply calling the raise on the flop with this hand then evaluating both of their actions on the turn with the intention of raising if the board doesnt get scary and I still feel I have the best hand.....by 3 betting the flop you basically turn your hand up and allow them to exploit you for more bets when your beat and get off cheaply when they are behind.

What the hell do I know though....

DB

[PokerBob]

i'm not sure why you'd raise the river if you don't feel good about folding to a 3bet.

[The Funky Llama]

im not really sure how liz plays but if shes decent the river raise seems bad to me regardless of whether u can fold to a 3bet. basically you are toast when she checkrasies the turn after the preflop/flop action

[DcifrThs]

that isn't the question.

the question is linking these two things from your post:

[ QUOTE ]
Liz isn't playing as crazy as everyone believes she always does

[/ QUOTE ]

and

[ QUOTE ]
River 5 Liz bets I raise

[/ QUOTE ]

given the play of the hand. she either has 99,77, 55, or 33. I think she'd probably cap >JJ pf. her hand screams strength even without the 3 bet. this is defined after the flop 3 bet w/ two players in and her c'ring you again knowing exactly what you have due to how you've played it.

one thing you should note for the future though, is that in this spot, you should probably be 3betting her c'rs after you flop a good draw, or AK on a 973 board after her c'r b/c she probably checks to you again thinking you'll play you're "overpair" the same way again.

anyways, now way should you raise this river given your read. what hand does an "ok" playing 2/4 player have in this spot? more importantly, what range of hands will call your river raise > 55-60% of the time? (increased due to the fact that given the way the hand was played, you also have to be mroe confident that normal that you won't get 3bet).

the ONLY thing she could be doingt his with is TT or A9 that has a read that you are a) freaking insane, or b) that you'd raise JJ-AA on the river and fold to a 3bet. i'd say that is so rediculously unlikely that i would fold.

i thought you were asking whether to call or fold (on the riv or turn). i'd think this hand is fairly standrad and you just call the river.

maybe i've been out of high stakes too long?? maybe my time in finance has weakened my poker knowledge??

who knows...but i definitely feel you cannot raise this river. and given you did, you should fold to the 3bet. she is almost never expecting you to, or played this way believing you will, fold.

Barron

[amulet]

on the turn it was clear that she has a set unless she is either crazy or thinks she can get 2 opponents to fold by shear aggression. i doubt either. i am almost certain that she had a set. i think your river raise after her turn play strongly indicated that she had a set was just giving her money.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure why you'd raise the river if you don't feel good about folding to a 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, if you are confused here just call and make a mental note for later, this is spewy IMO

[ZJ123]

I think this is a pretty standard just call on river, unless your instafolding to a 3 bet, then you can raise.