Analyze this play with AK in the 750k satellite

[MrX5000]

This play has been killin me. I really think I did the right thing but why don't you tell me? Should I have waited longer to try and double up? Do you fold the AK here?

Playing at the 750k satellite. Starting out with around 1000 players. The top 39 players advance into free entry into the 750k guaranteed event.

about an hour and a half into the event. I'm sitting with 4k in chips in the yellow zone. Binds are at 80/120. However, in 20 min, antes are kicking in, so my yellow zone is a bit deceiving. Looking ahead, I'll be in the orange zone at the 120/240 ante 25, and the red zone at 150/300 ante 25. So I figure make the move with some good cards now so I can abuse the guys that don't look ahead when the antes kick in.

Action starts. The first 2 seats fold, the third seat raises to 1600 (leaving him with only 900 chips left). He's a loose player that's been calling with any two cards Queen Jack or higher and any pair.

I look down and I have AK offsuit. I think for a minute and put him on anything but Aces, Kings, and Queens. the raise is just too high for something like that. His raise to me looks like he's happy taking the pot down right there...maybe an isolation attempt. Not sure...but NOT aces or kings.

Against the worst case scenerio, I'm up against a lower pair with two higher cards..about a 50-50 shot. The others where I dominate the face cards, I'm either a 60-40 fav or a 70-30...clearly a positive equity move.

I re-raise to all-in, everyone folds behind me and he calls. He turns up QQ,

the flop comes K Q 7 (blank) (blank) and I'm crippled.

I lose a couple hands later when I get called on a first in vigor push and get outdrawn. I finish in 193, about 150 spots out of the prize.

Ok so for my question, I believe I made the right move but are there cases where you maybe sit on your stack and stay away from calling with AK (even in cases where you're 99% sure they don't have aces or kings?).

Thanks,

X

[greg nice]

talk poker instead of colors. leave the goofiness to the crappy government of homeland jokesters. if the "zones" help you think about certain stack sizes, so be it, but they are just a baseline. its better to play from the specific table dynamics

4k chips with 120 big blind means you got about 35 bigblinds. plenty of a stack and no need to rush anything. with almost 200 players remaining, theres still lots of poker before the bubble tightness phase. so pretty much a normal tournament play situation right now. no need to look to "double up" with such a large stack.

guy raises the 120 blind to 1600 and leaves himself 900 (2500 total starting). so you know that youre playing for his whole stack since hes never folding for 900 more.. and a majority of yours

i think its a bad idea to assume its not AA/KK and completely rule them out. maybe consider weighting his range like 50% TT-QQ, 30% AK-AQ, 20% AA-KK.

you are thinking about the hand correctly, by putting him on a range and figuring your equity. but if you use a range like i used, you see that instead of

[ QUOTE ]
Against the worst case scenerio, I'm up against a lower pair with two higher cards..about a 50-50 shot. The others where I dominate the face cards, I'm either a 60-40 fav or a 70-30...clearly a positive equity move.

[/ QUOTE ]

it becomes

small chance im crushed as 20/80 (AA) or 30/70 (KK), most likely im 50/50 (TT-QQ), small chance we're tied (AK), minute chance im ahead 70/30 (AQ)

but, what this equity was based on the range i assigned. your range for him might be wider, including AJ, KQ, etc. however, just because hes been calling raises with any two better than QJ, thats MUCH DIFFERENT, than raising so large and playing for his entire tournament life. thats why its probably safe to exclude those hands you dominate. again though, you were there so your read and range would trump any that i can give. and since its a freeroll (if i read right) then its def possible they have any two broadway.

finally, after you weigh his range and decide whether or not to risk losing 2500, understand that being left with 1500 is far from "crippled" with the big blind only 120. you still enough of a stack to take blinds and/or reraise steal in the right spots. however finding those spots is the skill in tournaments.

basically it narrows down to whether or not you want to take the coinflip, as thats probably what the equity averages out to. you decide whether its worth it to take the gamble, depending on your ability to accumulate chips at the current table you are on, whether its an easy or tough table. a tough table maybe you need to gamble and get lucky since you cant outplay people. and even if you lose, again 1500 is nowhere near crippled, but does change your strategy significantly. you probably were very dissappointed that you lost that hand, and kinda gave up on the tournament with the attitude of "fucck it i just lost so much im basically crippled ill just go allin and hope to get lucky to get me back to where i was." i do this a lot and its really bad way of tilting when you still have a workable stack.

lol wow a real long strat post by me. yikes. but youre def more than a beginner, you are thinking about the hands properly and recalling lots of details that are important. good luck

[MrX5000]

Thanks for the reply. I am a beginner. I'm just learning fast. I've been reading alot of books and playing alot of hands for about 9 months. I only brought up the zones because I thought everyone was familiar with harrington's book. The zones accuratly describe changing gears in relation to how many more orbits you have to stand.

I can think in terms of blinds also, which is pretty much the same thing except it doesn't take into account the ante and whether you're shorthanded. I think when guys talk about how many blinds, I think of phil gordon's book. Another good book that I am reading right now.

I have pretty much been able to narrow down my mistakes to something that's been in his book...something I may have missed or something. I don't believe in bad beats just missed reads. I'm still learning but the truth is it's just alot to consider every hand. It's easy to miss something.

You're right though, maybe I should be thinking more in terms of blinds when the tournament is about to go short stacked. 160 is workable I agree but the levels were jumping in about 20 min or so and the table was maybe 50 hands an hour.

I've been struggling with whether Its a better strategy to have a larger stack going into the biggest level jump of the tournament or sliding in and maybe taking chances with everyone else.

Thanks for your input. I will keep these points in mind.

[greg nice]

right. blinds/ blinds+antes/ zones, all different ways of looking at the same concept. neither is "correct" or "better". but also remember, at some tables 12 big blinds is auto push, and other other tables you can fold down to like 6 blinds and still have a shot. theres dynamics depending on how people are playing and what you want to accomplish.

im not a big tourney guy, but i find that when i slide into the money with avg stack, i dont usually win much. i maybe double my buyin or so. but when i have a huge stack, i have potential to go really deep and final table. so i prefer to gamble early and try to build a stack and then use my skill to outplay later on. if your skill is primarily waiting for good starting hands, then your goals will be different. my skill is in stealing from people, so i need a stack to threaten