650 wsop sat qq with 44 left

[dudeoflife]

Hero is 22nd in chips only top 35 get seats. I haven't played a hand in past half hour. Villain is top 8 in chips and has been involved in lots of pots but hasn't done anything out of line or put lots of his chips at risk. What do you do on the flop and do you do anything differently preflop?

Hand #425
PokerStars Game #9446188013: Tournament #47153283, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2007/04/16 - 00:12:47 (ET)
Table '47153283 35' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: 1CrazyCrab (65990 in chips)
Seat 2: TheActionKid (14916 in chips)
Seat 3: dudeoflife21 (29226 in chips)
Seat 4: LIVZ1973 (19226 in chips)
Seat 5: thanksB (51787 in chips)
Seat 6: NoSLOUCH (30525 in chips)
Seat 7: Vaga_Lion (24754 in chips)
Seat 8: VuaBluff (12420 in chips)
Seat 9: Yannick PONS (81351 in chips)
1CrazyCrab: posts the ante 75
TheActionKid: posts the ante 75
dudeoflife21: posts the ante 75
LIVZ1973: posts the ante 75
thanksB: posts the ante 75
NoSLOUCH: posts the ante 75
Vaga_Lion: posts the ante 75
VuaBluff: posts the ante 75
Yannick PONS: posts the ante 75
Yannick PONS: posts small blind 800
1CrazyCrab: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dudeoflife21 [Qs Qh]
TheActionKid: folds
dudeoflife21: raises 3200 to 4800
LIVZ1973: folds
thanksB: folds
NoSLOUCH: folds
Vaga_Lion: folds
VuaBluff: folds
Yannick PONS: folds
1CrazyCrab: calls 3200
*** FLOP *** [7h Td 3h]
1CrazyCrab: bets 27200

Hero?

[Killingbird]

Villain probably reraises you preflop with KK or AA and with that board JJ (which you love) is possible or perhaps AK of hearts (which you dont love, but probably cant fold to). I call here.

[whynot?]

I'd hate myself but i'd have to fold.

i'd put villain mostly on a made hand and he's way overbetting to get you to drop any draws, may of hit trips, could possibly be kk and wanted to see a non-ace flop before pushing, could be jj but i doubt if he pushes around an utg raiser like that when he doesnt have to. in reality villain doesnt need to do anything to most likely get the seat - is he smart enough to know that? suspect he is but thats very read dependent. if he's hasnt been pushing his stack around he's got a real hand

even if he's pushing with a draw which is a small percent of his holdings, your probably only a 60/40 in fav of winning and virtually guaranteeing yourself a seat.


think this becomes an easy fold and look for short-mid stacks to pick on

[dchz]

this looks like a stop and go with a pocket pair or ATs,

i think i'd call here, you have around 16 big blinds, and given the image of villain i think this is a very easy call,

i'm a cash game donk though,

but if you want to play it safe for the sat, i think we would have to know the relative stack sizes of the bottom 9 players left and how fast the blinds are escalating,

[dchz]

plz let us know what happened, and your thought process on what you did

[whynot?]

for the record guys i think the responses here have been much more normal mtt strategy as opposed to a satellite. let me pose this question

if he folds lets assume he's a 70% chance (or pick your percent) of getting in. Do you really believe he has a 70% (or your pick) chance of winning this hand?

[shaundeeb]

If you aren't calling on this flop fold PF.

[dchz]

[ QUOTE ]
for the record guys i think the responses here have been much more normal mtt strategy as opposed to a satellite. let me pose this question

if he folds lets assume he's a 70% chance (or pick your percent) of getting in. Do you really believe he has a 70% (or your pick) chance of winning this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

as i understand your concern because this is a sat, let me remind you OP isn't in very good chip position to "coast" into the rewards

villain likely realizes this and hence thinks his FE is very high, however, you still have to take a stand in some of the spots in a sat in order to get it in, and i don't see any more situation that is more likely to come up than this to accumulate some chips,

besides, hero probably will get into the seat if he wins this, so this is pretty much the whole tourney here, and i think this is a call still given all the considerations

[whynot?]

so i hear ya - the question is the comparison of the percentages - in essence your saying the odds of him winning this hand are greater then the odds of him getting in if he folds. I can accept that logic i'm just not convinced it holds

so let me reask it - if he folds what chances do you give him for getting in?

[TheNewf]

Open push.