A Bunch of Horse Racing Questions

[rgold79]

OK, I have a few questions about betting on horses and would appreciate someone obliging me with answers. Also, I searched back a ways in this forum and didn't find too much but if a guide to handicapping already exists somewhere in here someone could just quickly provide me a link. Thanks.

When I "handicap" a race, am I trying just to make a decision as to which horse I think will win, or am I trying to find a gap between the actual odds a horse will win and what I perceive the odds to be?

In other words, should I say to myself, "Horse A will probably not win, but I believe his odds of winning to be better than the 10-1 offered" or should I just bet the favorite if I think he'll win, even if he's only going off at 2-3?

What separates the successful horse handicapper from the majority of the betting public?

Are exactas and trifectas good plays? The house is collecting a percentage of the total pool, so how do you determine if these are good plays? If not, is it better to stick with W/P/S bets? What about boxing picks?

I like racing, and I understand how to read and intepret a racing form, but at the same time it occurs to me that I really have no idea what kind of strategies might be useful for optimizing play at the track.

[phishguy]

How I bet horses??
Well the Horse Tracks take is a lot less on W/P/S bets then it is on Ex, Tri, Sup, Pick 3s, etc. But the exotics is really is where the Money is in my opinion.
If your goal is to make small amounts of money over time, you will be better off betting horses to SHOW. I usually stick to playing pick 3's and gaurenteed prize pools pick 4s.
If the prize pool is gaurenteed then there will be more $$ in the pool, but not necassarily more tickets. Do some research on the internet to find which tracks have these.
Santa Anita, Los Almatios, Bay Meadows, Meadowlands, and Keeneland come to mind.

I am the type of person who goes, and usually loses small chunks of money, but when I do win, I need to sign some papers. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bishop22]

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When I "handicap" a race, am I trying just to make a decision as to which horse I think will win, or am I trying to find a gap between the actual odds a horse will win and what I perceive the odds to be?

In other words, should I say to myself, "Horse A will probably not win, but I believe his odds of winning to be better than the 10-1 offered" or should I just bet the favorite if I think he'll win, even if he's only going off at 2-3?

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I usually look for the contenders first as qualified in Quinn's book "The Handicappers Condition Book". These are the only horses I will bet at short odds. If I can separate a single contender I then consider whether the odds offer value, if not I may look for value in the exacta or double pools. If there is not a short priced horse that figures to win a huge percentage of the time I look for improvement angles especially equipment changes and trainer changes, these are the best bets at the track in the 8-1 to 20-1 range especially when coupled with a less-than-stellar favorite.

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What separates the successful horse handicapper from the majority of the betting public?


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Time and experience, plus there is power in numbers so partnerships and syndicates increase returns.

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Are exactas and trifectas good plays? The house is collecting a percentage of the total pool, so how do you determine if these are good plays? If not, is it better to stick with W/P/S bets? What about boxing picks?


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Exactas yes, because you can see the payout and bet accordingly, trifectas have never been a significant part of my game however they do play a roll in hedging exacta bets (see Beyer 'Picking Winners'). Place and Show bets are bad especially if you have not established yourself as being profitable in the Win pool. You need about twice the edge that you have on a winner to make money in the Place pool (excluding skewed pools).


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I like racing, and I understand how to read and intepret a racing form, but at the same time it occurs to me that I really have no idea what kind of strategies might be useful for optimizing play at the track.

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Very few do, best bet is to flat bet in the Win pool for a while and see how you do over a couple hundred bets. Try three bet sizes: Prime, Value and Action; ideally the Prime bet will be 25x the action bet with the Value bet closer to the Action bet, for example $50 $10 & $2. Of course if your roll is smaller you could bet $2 on each but make sure to catagorize the bet ahead of time and record in a spredsheet or whatever. If you are making smart bets you should see your value bets exceed the ROI of your other bets (even if still negative). IMO you will not be able to make money from racing if you cannot first beat, or come close to beating, the win pool.

I've made a few posts here and in sports betting over the last year that might be worth looking at, book recommendations, software etc.

[Kevroc]

Hello,

When it comes to the track, I am purely looking for +EV spots.

I get stablemail from Bris whnever there is a carryover in the big pick six pools over 100,000 dollars.. i get involved.

I get the form and affix a line to each horse. (what i think it should be).

Then I measure it against the morning line. If my horse is an overlay according to the ML, I put it on my pick six ticket.

So its basically looking for value in the pick six pool and then again looking for value on the winners.. combined for the ultimate overlay.

In calendar year 2006, I hit four pick sixes ranging from 5k to 61k.

[Kevroc]

LOL, too bad the money is all gone.

It went to taxes and to buy my avatar.

[Holybull]

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In calendar year 2006, I hit four pick sixes ranging from 5k to 61k.

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I'm curious. Do you play these alone or in partnerships? Pick sixes can get very, very expensive.

[rgold79]

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Very few do, best bet is to flat bet in the Win pool for a while and see how you do over a couple hundred bets. Try three bet sizes: Prime, Value and Action; ideally the Prime bet will be 25x the action bet with the Value bet closer to the Action bet, for example $50 $10 & $2. Of course if your roll is smaller you could bet $2 on each but make sure to catagorize the bet ahead of time and record in a spredsheet or whatever. If you are making smart bets you should see your value bets exceed the ROI of your other bets (even if still negative). IMO you will not be able to make money from racing if you cannot first beat, or come close to beating, the win pool.


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Are there certain criteria you use to differentiate between the three classifications?

Also, this is really great info, thanks very much.

[Bishop22]

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Very few do, best bet is to flat bet in the Win pool for a while and see how you do over a couple hundred bets. Try three bet sizes: Prime, Value and Action; ideally the Prime bet will be 25x the action bet with the Value bet closer to the Action bet, for example $50 $10 & $2. Of course if your roll is smaller you could bet $2 on each but make sure to catagorize the bet ahead of time and record in a spredsheet or whatever. If you are making smart bets you should see your value bets exceed the ROI of your other bets (even if still negative). IMO you will not be able to make money from racing if you cannot first beat, or come close to beating, the win pool.


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Are there certain criteria you use to differentiate between the three classifications?

Also, this is really great info, thanks very much.

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I guess it is really confidence and odds. Your prime bets are generally going to be at odds of 8/5 to 4-1. The horses that are prime bets generally have raced multiple times at this distance and track are running against horses that have done the same. Prime bets generally outclass the fields they are against, and the other runners are devoid of equipment changes, trainer changes or any other improvement angles. You probably don't want to go too far below 8-5 when you first start out because those horses are often huge underlays and you may miss an improvement angle on another horse. You would generally want to be about 50% sure that an 8-5 horse would win, that way if your way off you still make money. As the odds improve you can bet with less confidence but it will be unlikely that you'll find many prime bets at much more than 4-1.

Two examples from today's (4/19) at AQU. In the fourth race, the #1 horse showed new early speed last time when adding blinkers and was turning back to a sprint today. Unfortunately the trainer was junk so I could only make a value bet, horse went off at 34-1 and won by 2 lengths. In the eighth, I couldn't figure a way that the #2 could lose but he was going off at 1-2, I would have bet the farm at 4/5 but it was a little thin, so I settled for the exacta and double, at 4/5 a definite prime bet though, worst possible pace scenario and won by over 3.

[Kevroc]

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In calendar year 2006, I hit four pick sixes ranging from 5k to 61k.

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I'm curious. Do you play these alone or in partnerships? Pick sixes can get very, very expensive.

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both.

If I can drum up interest, I'll write up a ticket ranging upto 3k if needed.

although, mostly I play my own ticket and invest upto 1k.

The 61k hit was at Hollywood Park and my ticket was only $192 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[rgold79]

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Very few do, best bet is to flat bet in the Win pool for a while and see how you do over a couple hundred bets. Try three bet sizes: Prime, Value and Action; ideally the Prime bet will be 25x the action bet with the Value bet closer to the Action bet, for example $50 $10 & $2. Of course if your roll is smaller you could bet $2 on each but make sure to catagorize the bet ahead of time and record in a spredsheet or whatever. If you are making smart bets you should see your value bets exceed the ROI of your other bets (even if still negative). IMO you will not be able to make money from racing if you cannot first beat, or come close to beating, the win pool.


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I've been trying this, and over an admittedly very small sample size, I'm getting absolutely killed. This is going to take some practice.