Razz: Defending with a 9 or 10 on 3rd

[grapes]

3-handed razz. You bring it in with 9(52), an 8 folds, and a 5 raises. What's your play? What if you change your nine to a ten?

I know there's a few variables unspecified here, but I'd like to consider the general case first, and then decide how much weight to give different factors.

Would any of the following change your answer (how)?

- structure: 5 ante, 5 bring-in 20/40 (where you have only a quarter bet invested) versus a typical 30/60 structure
- opponent
- number of players dealt in
- instead of 5-2, you have 8-5 in the hole
- instead of a 5 up, the stealer shows an A, or an 8

I have a lot to say on the subject, but I'd like to hear some other opinions and ideas first, before I spell it all out.

I will say that I think having only 2 or 3 antes to fight for (versus a full table folding around to the 5) changes things a lot.

[Andy B]

I do believe this is a raise. The other guy should be raising with a lot of hands, and may be raising with anything. If you raise, he may fold right away, which would be good. By raising, you also make the pot big enough that you won't be making a folding mistake on fourth when you catch bad and he's got a bad one underneath.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Andy has given you very good advice.

[Andy B]

First time for everything.

[SweetLuckyMe]

[ QUOTE ]
First time for everything.

[/ QUOTE ] LOL, not true. I've agreed with you plenty. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Sure, I think you'd benefit with a bit more 'pizazz' in your play, but overall you're the sound sort. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I do believe this is a raise. The other guy should be raising with a lot of hands, and may be raising with anything. If you raise, he may fold right away, which would be good. By raising, you also make the pot big enough that you won't be making a folding mistake on fourth when you catch bad and he's got a bad one underneath.

[/ QUOTE ]

There may be some advantages to raising a likely stealer, but you're ignoring the 800 lb gorilla in the corner: you have a 9 showing. Have you ever seen anyone fold to a reraise on 3rd st. when they're showing a bike card and you're showing a 9?? Even if they have rolled up 5's, you'd be hard pressed to find a player these days who'd give it up since if he catches an 8 or better and you catch a 9 or worse no 4th, then he's got you over a barrel regardless of hole cards. Against villain's two random hole cards you're only a small (55/45) favorite to win the hand if it's all-in on 3rd st. anyway. Also, what happens when he does have a legitimate hand and 3-bets you? Now you've just put in 2 extra bets as a big underdog and you're very vulnerable the whole rest of the hand with that 9 up. Good thinking.

[grapes]

Excellent analysis, you make some very good points here SG - many of which were my arguments too.

Even though most players' ranges here are very wide (often any 3 cards), not many are folding to a reraise, except with their most hopeless hands, if then. If he has you beat already (which is close to 40% of the time!), you are getting three-bet here. Even when you're ahead you'll get three-bet sometimes.

[ QUOTE ]
By raising, you also make the pot big enough that you won't be making a folding mistake on fourth when you catch bad and he's got a bad one underneath.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true with "any playable hand, such as a three-card eight" (from Sklansky on Razz). The problem with a 9 is that when fourth comes bad, you are in a lot worse shape than when you started with an 8. Having an extra couple bets in the pot isn't enough to justify calling with (52)9-Q against someone showing 5-6. In that case, you've become a significant dog even to random hole cards, you have no information about his hand, and your hand is obvious to him.

However... your other options aren't particularly appetizing either.

Calling is weak, for obvious reasons. You'll end up folding the best hand a lot of the time here. You have zero information about his hand. Even if fourth comes good for you and not for him, you might have to have fifth come good/bad again before you can relax.

Folding just seems wrong, when you're a 60-40 favorite (952 vs **5).

I don't think anything in Sklansky on Razz really covers this situation. He emphasizes reraising when you're going to play, but as discussed above, I don't think that applies to a 9 or 10.

When he talks about defending with the high card, he says something like "if you folded every jack or worse to a steal, it wouldn't be much of a mistake, but would probably be a bit too tight." This would seem to indicate that folding a 9 definitely can't be right, but then again, he's assuming you're at a full table. 2 or 3 handed the missing antes add up to about a small bet, which should make a significant difference in how often you defend.

SG, what *do* you do in this spot, since you don't raise? Is it close? Would changing the variables in the OP potentially change your answer?

I've mostly been (kind of reluctantly) calling with nines in this spot, and usually folding tens, but I'm still not sure whether that's right or how often to deviate.

Thoughts?

[halhal]

It seems like 9's and 10's are where the difficult choices come in. When catching good means 8 and under, and catching bad means catching paint. 9's and T's are often borderline, and you want lump the 9's good and then T's with the bad.
They key thing in your case IMHO, is that you are playing shorthanded so chances are you are ahead or only slightly behind. Also, I like Andy B's advice as well, but if the bring in was only a quarter of a bet, and the antes are small, is folding that catastrophic? If the bring in was 1/3 or 1/2 the bet, it's an easier call or re-raise.
Personally, I have a hard time re-raising in this situation and would normally call.

[Micturition Man]

Based on ProPoker sims I think it's absolutely correct to at least call here.

If you had the 9 buried it would probably be a thin value reraise, imo.

Having the 9 up is big disadvantage, but it also should imply a wider distribution of hands for your opponent.

So I would base the reraise versus call decision on what distribution I think my opponent should have.

If he is opening with at least one other low card in the hole you are only like a 52/48 favorite here, so given that you have a 9 up I really don't like a reraise.

If he is opening with any 2 cards down (which he should if the pot is large due to antes, or if you had T or higher up), then you are way ahead and you should just reraise for value, and he should fold quite often even with your 9 up..

So in the worst case scenario, where it's heads up and only two antes are in the pot, you should just call.

Best case scenario where 7 people have folded and the pot is huge and he should just take a shot with any 2 cards down, you should reraise.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
SG, what *do* you do in this spot, since you don't raise? Is it close? Would changing the variables in the OP potentially change your answer?

I've mostly been (kind of reluctantly) calling with nines in this spot, and usually folding tens, but I'm still not sure whether that's right or how often to deviate.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a close decision between call and fold, and you have expertly layed out the factors invloved grapes. Usually I'll decide based on the style and quality of my opponent. Against the average chip spewer, I'm calling about 100% of the time. Against you grapes, I'd be mixing up my play [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]